Where do they go from here?

My quick take on the Iowa caucus results -

Democratic side...

Obama - Upside? His victory shows that his candidacy has legs - Iowa is one of the whitest states in the Union. If he can win here, he can win pretty near anywhere. Downside? On the other hand, this was basically a home field for him (Iowa and his home state of Illinois are neighbors) - he should have done well here. 38% was just a bit better than expected, however.

Edwards - Upside? His strong 2nd shows that he won't be outshined by the rock star Dems, Obama and Clinton. Downside? Now he has to prove that he can hang with them in a bigger arena (like the rest of the country.)

Clinton - Downside? She went from inevitable to 3rd place. Upside? 29% is a strong third, and she's got the smarts and the staff to learn from what went wrong. New Hampshire might be too soon for any changes to take effect, but February 5th looms as the bigger prize.

Richardson - Downside? 2%. 'Nuff said. Upside? He was totally overshadowed by the big 3, who went all out in Iowa. Now the campaigns have to expand their focus. He'll have a chance to shine through if he hangs on until February 5th.

Kucinich - Downside? Didn't even get enough votes to make most results pages. Upside? He could still garner enough delegates in his home state of Ohio to make the convention interesting.

If none of the big 3 pulls away from the pack.

Biden and Dodd - Downside? They're done. Upside? They get to focus on their duties in the Senate, possibly burnishing their VP credentials.

Gravel - Downside? Makes Kucinich look like a front-runner. Upside? Winter campaigning in New Hampshire isn't going to be much fun, but it beats sitting at home in Alaska.


Republican side...

Huckabee - Upside? Hey - he won, and by a comfortable margin. Downside? Now he has to find out if his combination of economic populism and hardcore theocratic social conservatism can win over chamber of commerce Republicans in places like California, New York, and Florida.

Romney - Downside? The biggest loser in the Iowa caucuses. He spent millions on TV ads alone, and didn't even make it close. If he, the former governor of Massachusetts, doesn't win New Hampshire, his candidacy is toast. Upside? He should win NH, and it doesn't have to be an overwhelming victory now that expectations have been lowered.

And despite the amount of money he spent in Iowa, he's got more.

Lots more.

Thompson - Upside? He came in third, without trying very hard. Downside? He polled better as a potential candidate than he has as an actual candidate. If he doesn't show signs of life in NH or Michigan (January 15), he may not last until February 5th.

McCain - Upside? He didn't try very hard either. Downside? He came in fourth. He has to do well in NH, or he could lose the 'resurgent' momentum that he has been gaining, and considering Romney's home field advantage there, that's very possible. Either McCain or Romney could be done by Tuesday night.

Ron Paul - Upside? 10% for a relatively 'fringe' candidate is nothing to sneeze at. Downside? He still came in behind two candidates who didn't try hard (McCain and Thompson) and just ahead of one who didn't try at all (Giuliani). 10% may be his peak outside of his Congressional district in Texas.

Giuliani - Downside? Low single digits in IA. Upside? Spent the day in Florida anyway. He's going to poll better as the campaigns move eastward; the big question is will 'better' be good enough to win?

Hunter - Downside? He and Mike Gravel could go into pro wrestling as a tag team named "The Utterly Irrelevants." Upside? Pro wrestling is hard work, but pro wrestlers get more respect and better pay than Congress. Oh, and he can say that he outlasted Tancredo.

Later!

Democratic Ballot for AZ's Presidential Preference Primary

Edit to add - OK, so I was a little bored on Christmas Day, and decided to do a little research on the *ahem* 'lesser-known' candidates on the ballot. Some of the names were all but useless as search parameters and I couldn't find any information that was clearly pertinent to the presidential candidates. Others, however, were useful. A number of the candidates are participants in the Association of Alternative Newsweeklies' Project White House. One candidate has even announced that he is on the presidential primary ballot by mistake; he's actually running in CD6 against Jeff Flake (or Russell Pearce, if Pearce can actually pull of the political upset of the century.) Information at the links; however, given that few of the candidates have actual campaign websites, some of the info could be inaccurate.

End edit.

DSW at Sonoran Alliance put up a post detailing the Republican ballot; here's the listing of the Democratic one.

The list of candidates on the ballot for Arizona's Democratic Presidential Preference Primary taking place February 5, 2008 (courtesy the Arizona Secretary of State's website) (major candidates in bold; Arizona-based candidates noted with an 'AZ') -

WHITEHOUSE, SANDY (AZ) - president of the Santa Rita Foothills Community Association.

RICHARDSON, BILL

LYNCH, FRANK

KRUEGER, KARL - truck driver/radio personality

OBAMA, BARACK

EDWARDS, JOHN

BOLLANDER, PETER "SIMON" (AZ)

MONTELL, LELAND (AZ) - real estate agent

SEE, CHUCK (AZ) - ran for President as a Republican in 2000

HUBBARD, LIBBY (AZ) - artist

GEST, LOTI (AZ) - counselor at an addiction recovery center

DALEY, ORION - author

CAMPBELL, WILLIAM (AZ) - this is a lousy name for web searches.

TANNER, PHILIP (AZ)

KUCINICH, DENNIS J.

CLINTON, HILLARY

DOBSON, EDWARD (AZ)

HAYMER, TISH (AZ) - The Abbess of Costello?

LEE, RICH - another name provides lousy internet search terms

OATMAN, MICHAEL (AZ) - IT Guru

GRAVEL, MIKE

VITULLO, EVELYN L. (AZ) - a Democratic candidate for President in 2004

DODD, CHRISTOPHER J.

GRAYSON, RICHARD (AZ)


Notes:

The biggest surprise? No Joe Biden on the ballot.

Worst draw for a 'top-tier' candidate? Hillary Clinton; 15 candidates, including Richardson, Obama, and Edwards are listed higher on the ballot.

Is there something in Tucson's water? Of the 17 'anybody can run for President' candidates, 12 list a Tucson address. Maybe somebody should tell them that they are more likely to win a Powerball jackpot than the President's job.

Later!

Some Democrats stepped up during Wednesday's debate...

...and others were eliminated from contention (with a couple of others treading water)...

All this happened on one question. :))

Warning: sarcasm ahead...

Governor Bill Richardson, former Sen. John Edwards, former Sen. Mike Gravel, and Sen. Chris Dodd showed that they are intelligent, wise, and undeniably classy; any would be fine choice for the Presidency.

Sen. Hillary Clinton and Sen. Joe Biden showed that they are morally, intellectually, and mentally unfit for the Presidency.

Sen. Barack Obama and Rep. Dennis Kucinich showed that the jury is still out - they didn't show the wisdom of Richardson, Edwards, Gravel, and Dodd, but there were extenuating circumstances.

How can we arrive at these conclusions, with months of campaigning ahead before the first primaries and caucuses?

The candidates were asked if they rooted for the Red Sox or the Yankees.

Richardson, Edwards, Gravel, and Dodd expressed support for the beloved Olde Towne Teame. (Whooo hoooo!!)

Clinton and Biden professed fealty to The Evil Empire. (Hiss boooo!!!)

Obama (IL) and Kucinich (OH) proclaimed their loyalty for the respective hometown teams. Not as good as rooting for the Red Sox, but wayyyyy better than being a Yankee fan.

Oh, those poor poor Clinton and Biden supporters - the primaries are months away, and their candidates have already committed a candidacy-killing gaffe.

:))

Upcoming events, Presidential campaign chapter

Monday, June 4, Bill Richardson

From an email -

Governor Bill Richardson will be in Arizona on Monday, June 4, 2007.The public event will take place at the Burton Barr Library, 1221 N.Central Ave. Phoenix, AZ., the fundraiser will take place in ParadiseValley.

Meeting Room B 3:00PM-3:30PM
Press Availability

Lecture Hall 3:30PM-4:30PM

He will have a town hall meeting focused around energy policy and the environment.
This event is open to the public.

Event RSVP # 505.239.4697
General campaign contact # 505.828.2455

There will be other, private, meetings at the library. In addition, there will be a private fundraiser in PV afterward.


Saturday, June 9, Barack Obama

From an email -

Put Saturday, June 9th on your calendar as your personal day of action for the Obama campaign.

Saturday, June 9th - Click link to RSVP:

Phoenix:
9 AM at Cortez Park (35th Ave & Dunlap)

Tempe:
9 AM at Kiwanis Park (Baseline Rd, west of Mill Ave)

Phoenix area event organizer: Ken Chapman, kchapman2@gmail.com
More details: http://my.barackobama.com/page/event/detail/walkforchangefeatured/4jlrk

Tucson:
9 AM at Gene Reid Park (Ramada #31)

Prescott:
10 AM at Granite Creek Park (554 N 6th St)


The Kucinich, Dodd, Gravel, Clinton and Edwards campaigns all seem to have light AZ schedules right now; most are focused on Sunday's debate in New Hampshire.

However, former President Bill Clinton will be the keynote speaker at this year's Arizona Democratic Party's Heritage Dinner on Monday, June 25. I would be surprised if his wife's candidacy didn't come up in one or two conversations that night.

Certainly no more than 3 or 4. :))

The dinner will be held at the Phoenician Resort, 6000 East Camelback Road, Scottsdale, AZ 85251. Contact Maritza Lopez at 602-234-6814 for details.

Note: I'll be doing this kind of post regularly; I'll be happy to post verified events. Contact me at cpmaz[at]yahoo.com or visit a D17 meeting.

Later!