Thursday, July 04, 2013

Eight years, or one complete term limits cycle, worth of blogging

The year was 2006, and I was becoming more active politically (the combination of having the highly embarrassing JD Hayworth as my representative in Congress and the highly respected Harry Mitchell challenging him motivated me to get off of my ass).  The 2006 election was the first election in Arizona where I paid close attention to most of the races on the ballot.

Earlier this week, I was thinking about term limits (8 years for legislative and statewide offices) and thinking about their impact.  Doing the math, I realized that anybody who was first elected to a legislative or statewide office in 2006 and has continuously held that office since would now be term-limited out of that office.

Planning to write up a post on the term-limits status of current electeds, I began by looking at the results of the 2006 election.  Anybody who was first elected to a legislative or statewide office that year and has continuously held that office since would now be set to be term-limited out of that office in 2014.

During that research, I was struck by two things:

1. How few of the people elected that year will actually be affected by term limits this time around.  By my count, only five people elected that year will be affected by term limits on the office that they were elected to in 2006..

2. And how much pure turnover there has been in those offices since that election.

Much of that turnover has been self-inflicted (AZ does seem to have a number of politicos with domestic violence "issues"), but some is indirectly related to term limits - when one office holder is term-limited out of a particular office, another office holder who isn't term limited out of their own office may choose to run for the soon-to-be vacant office (i.e. - legislators running statewide)

To whit:

Governor - Janet Napolitano easily won reelection in 2006 and would have been termed-out in 2010, but she resigned in 2009 to accept a position in the cabinet of Barack Obama, the newly-elected president of the United States.

Secretary of State - Jan Brewer.  She *is* termed out of office this cycle, but not from the SOS job.  Her ascension to the governor's office in 2009 started the term limits clock on that office.

Attorney General - Terry Goddard.  He won reelection in 2006 but was termed-out in 2010.  That year, he ran for governor in a race eventually won by Brewer.  Has made noises about running for office in 2014 (SOS or AG).  Interestingly, the Republican he defeated in the general election, Bill Montgomery, went on to become Maricopa County Attorney and is now rumored to be mulling another run for AG in 2014.

State Treasurer - Dean Martin.  After a 2009 family tragedy (his wife died during childbirth), he challenged Brewer for the R nomination for governor, but came up short in the primary.

State Superintendent of Public Instruction - Tom Horne.  He was termed-out of that office in 2010, so he ran for AG and won.  He was rumored to be eyeing a 2014 run for governor, but his term as AG has been marked by scandals.  Now, he seems to be focused on holding on to the AG spot, but is likely to face strong opponents in both the R primary and the general election.

State Mine Inspector - Joe Hart.  First won election to the office in 2006, reelected in 2010, and termed-out next year, and...Who cares?  The job is less about inspecting mines than it is about padding an elected official's pension (and hobnobbing with mining industry lobbyists and execs).  It isn't in the line of succession for governor in the event of a mid-term vacancy.  Bottom line:  this shouldn't be an elected office.

State legislature (while the district numbers and lines changed with redistricting after the 2010 census, any member elected to a particular chamber during the 2006 election and still holding office in that chamber now is term-limited in 2014):

Using old LD numbers -

LD1 State Senate - Tom O'Halleran (R).  Lost a primary challenge mounted by Steve Pierce in 2008, who campaigned on a platform of "O'Halleran is a liberal!".  Ironically, Pierce is facing the same diatribes now over his support of Medicaid restoration.

LD1 State House - Lucy Mason and Andy Tobin (Rs).  Mason was termed-out in 2010 and hasn't run for a state-level office since.  Tobin is now Speaker of the House, but is termed-out next year.  There have been rumors of interest in either a run for Congress or for governor.

LD2 State Senate - Albert Hale (D). Was previously termed-out of the Senate; currently in the House.

LD2 State House - Ann Kirkpatrick and Albert Tom (Ds).  Kirkpatrick ran for Congress in 2008 and won, was swept out of Congress in the 2010 Republican wave, and swept back into Congress in the 2012.  Tom lost a 2010 primary and remains out of office.

LD3 State Senate - Ron Gould (R).  Termed out in 2012, ran for Congress.  Lost in the R primary, last seen: fronting an effort put the recent restoration of Medicaid eligibility to previous levels on the 2014 ballot, hoping to overturn it.

LD3 State House -Trish Groe and Nancy McLain (Rs).  Groe ran into a DUI-related issue and lost in the 2008 primary.  Last seen: moved to Gilbert (I think) and was/is active in the LD Republican party organization there.  McLain ran for the state senate in 2012; lost in the primary.

LD4 State Senate - Jack Harper (R).  Termed out of the Senate in 2010, ran for and won a seat in the House.  Chose not to run for a second term in the House.  Currently out of office.  I miss him.  :)

LD4 State House - Tom Boone and Judy Burges (Rs).  Boone was termed out of the House in 2010 and was later caught up in scandal involving conflicts of interest and misuse of funds at the Deer Valley Unified School District, ultimately resigning from the district's governing board.  Burges ran for and won the senate seat after now-former legislator Scott Bundgaard (R) was involved in a domestic violence incident by the side of a Phoenix freeway in 2011.

LD5 State Senate - Jake Flake (R).  Passed away in June 2008.

LD5 State House - Jack Brown (D) and Bill Konopnicki (R).  Brown retired in 2010 after close to four decades in the AZ lege.  Konopnicki ran for the Senate seat in 2010 but lost in the R primary.  He passed away in 2012.

LD6 State Senate - Pamela Gorman (R).  Ran for Congress in 2010, losing in the primary.  Last seen lobbying for Big Tobacco.

LD6 State House - Doug Clark and Sam Crump (Rs).  Crump ran for Congress in 2010 and came up short in the primary.  Crump is working as a lobbyist, based in San Francisco.  Clark isn't in office, but I don't know his story.

LD7 State Senate - Jim Waring (R).  Ran for Congress in 2010 and lost in the primary.  Ran for Phoenix City Council in 2012 and won.

LD7 State House - Nancy Barto and Ray Barnes (Rs).  Barto is now in the senate, continuing her work as Big Insurance's chief Arizona lobbyist.  Barnes ran for the Senate in 2010 and lost to Barto in the primary.  Barnes was colorful, to say the least.

LD8 State Senate - Carolyn Allen.  Termed out in 2010 and retired from electoral politics.  The last real "moderate" in the Republican caucus.  Current GOP "moderates" in the lege make Barry Goldwater, the man who, in 1964, was considered to be to crazy conservative to be president, look like a bleeding heart liberal.

LD8 State House - Michele Reagan and John Kavanagh (Rs).  Reagan moved up to the Senate when Allen retired after the 2010 session.  She is likely running for SOS in 2014.  Kavanagh is termed out of the House, but it likely running for the Senate seat.

LD9 State Senate - Bob Burns (R).  Served as President of the State Senate.  Termed out after the 2010 session.  Won a seat on the Arizona Corporation Commission in 2012.

LD9 State House - Rick Murphy and Bob Stump (Rs).  Murphy is currently in the Senate but may be facing term limits of the practical, not statutory, variety - he's facing allegations that he sexually abused some of the foster children placed in his care.  Stump ran for and won a seat on the Arizona Corporation Commission in 2008 and won reelection to that body in 2012.

LD10 State Senate - Linda Gray (R).  Retired from elected office after 2012.

LD10 State House - Jackie Thrasher (D) and Jim Weiers (R).  Thrasher served one term in the lege, falling victim to some Republican dirty tricks in 2008.  Weiers, a shill for the payday loan industry, was termed out after 2012.

LD11 State Senate - Barbara Leff (R).  Ran for State Treasurer in 2010, coming up short in the Republican primary.

LD11 State House - Adam Driggs (R) and Mark Desimone (D).  Driggs is in the Senate now.  Desimone resigned from office after an arrest on charges related to a domestic violence incident.

LD12 State Senate - Bob Blendu (R).  Did not seek reelection in 2008.  Occasionally makes noises about running for office again.  Still keeping his hand in, for fun and profit.

LD12 State House - John Nelson and Jerry Weiers (Rs).  Nelson moved over to the Senate for a couple of terms, but after redistricting, fellow R senator Don Shooter picked up his carpetbags and left his competitive district and moved to the other side of Yuma, which was placed in a safe R district.  He ultimately chose to step aside.  Weiers was termed out of the House and is now mayor of Glendale.

LD13 State Senate - Richard Miranda (D).  Was eventually termed out of the Senate and ran for and won a seat in the House.  He resigned from that office in 2012, citing health and family reasons.  Later pleaded guilty to federal fraud and tax evasion charges and sentenced to prison.

LD13 State House - Martha Garcia and Steve Gallardo (Ds).  Garcia remained in the House until 2010.  Gallardo is now in the Senate.

LD14 State Senate - Debbie McCune-Davis (D).  The long-time legislator is now in the House.

LD14 State House - Chad Campbell and Robert Meza.  Meza is now in the Senate.  Campbell is now Democratic leader in the House and is termed out in 2014.  Considering a run for governor in 2014.

LD15 State Senate - Ken Cheuvront (D).  Termed out after 2010.  Ran for a Justice of the Peace spot.  Lost the primary.  In 2012, ran for a return to the Senate.  Lost the primary.

LD15 State House - David Lujan and Kyrsten Sinema (Ds).  Lujan ended up in the Senate, ran for Attorney General in 2010 (lost in the primary), and is running for Phoenix City Council this year.  Sinema also ended up moving over to the Senate and then won a seat in Congress after redistricting in 2012.

LD16 State Senate - Leah Landrum-Taylor (D).  Still in the Senate, currently serving as Democratic leader.  Termed out in 2014, exploring a run at SOS.

LD16 State House - Cloves Campbell, Jr. and Ben Miranda (Ds).  Campbell served two terms in the House before being defeated in the 2010 primary.  Last seen: publishing the Arizona Informant.  Miranda left the House after the 2010 session.  Last seen: practicing law in Phoenix.

LD17 State Senate - Meg Burton Cahill.  Served in the Senate through the 2010 session.  Now serving as a Justice of the Peace in Maricopa County.

LD17 State House - Ed Ableser and David Schapira.  Ableser is now serving in the Senate.  Schapira moved to the Senate after the 2010 election, and ran for Congress in 2012, coming in second behind Sinema in the D primary.  Currently working as the Assistant Superintendent of the East Valley Institute of Technology (EVIT).

LD18 State Senate - Karen Johnson (R).  Served through the 2008 session.  Retired after that.  Occasionally flirts with running for something.  Last seen: living in Show Low.

LD18 State House - Mark Anderson and Russell Pearce (Rs).  Anderson served through 2008, ran for Congress in 2008 and lost in the primary.  Currently a Justice of the Peace.  Pearce moved to the Senate after 2008.  Became president of the Senate after the 2010 elections.  Became the first Arizona legislator ever recalled from office in 2011.  Making noises about attempting to return to office in 2014.

LD19 State Senate - Chuck Gray.  Briefly ran for Congress in 2012.  Last seen working for the eventual victor in that race, Matt Salmon, as Salmon's district director.

LD19 State House - Kirk Adams and Rich Crandall (Rs).  Adams later became Speaker of the House, eventually resigning to run for a seat in Congress.  He lost to Salmon in that primary.  Crandall eventually moved to the Senate and will soon be moving to Wyoming for a job.

LD20 State Senate - John Huppenthal (R).  Ran for and won the office of State Superintendent of Public Instruction in 2010.

LD20 State House - John McComish and Bob Robson (Rs).  McComish is currently in the State Senate.  Robson termed out after the 2008 session, took a term off (resetting his term limits clock) and returned to the House after the 2010 elections.

LD21 State Senate - Jay Tibshraeny (R).  The then-former mayor of Chandler served in the Senate through 2010, then made a return to the mayor's office in Chandler.

LD21 State House - Steve Yarbrough and Warde Nichols (Rs).  Yarbrough moved to the Senate, where he continues to undermine public education funding.  Nichols termed out after the 2010 session.  Last seen working as a lobbyist "business consultant".

LD22 State Senate - Thayer Verschoor (R).  Left the Senate after the 2010 session.  Ran for State Treasurer in 2010, losing in the primary; also spent time working as the executive director of the Arizona Republican Party.

LD22 State House - Andy Biggs and Eddie Farnsworth (Rs).  Verschoor and Farnsworth later faced off for the Senate seat, with Verschoor winning.  Farnsworth later returned to the House.  Biggs ran for the Senate in 2010 and won.  He is the current President of the State Senate.

LD23 State Senate - Rebecca Rios (D).  Swept out of office in the 2010 GOP wave.  Last seen working as a lobbyist/executive for a copper mining multinational.

LD23 State House - Barbara McGuire and Pete Rios (Ds).  McGuire was also swept out in the 2010 GOP wave, but has returned to the lege in the State Senate.  Pete Rios served in the House through 2008, later going on to serve on the Pinal County Board of Supervisors.

LD24 State Senate - Amanda Aguirre (D).  Held the Senate seat until 2010 when she was swept out of office by the GOP wave that year.  In 2012, she ran for Congress, losing in the primary.

LD24 State House - Lynne Pancrazi and Theresa Ulmer (Ds).  Ulmer lost her bid for reelection in 2008 but remains politically active.  Pancrazi is now serving in the State Senate.

LD25 State Senate - Marsha Arzberger (D).  Served in the Senate through 2008 and retired.  Still politically active.

LD25 State House - Jennifer Burns (R) and Manny Alvarez (D).  The relatively moderate Burns was hounded into not running for reelection in 2008 by the extreme wing of the Republican Party.  Burns is active with the Arizona Bar Association.  Alvarez moved to the Senate in the 2008 elections, but was swept out in the 2010 R wave.  Now apparently retired.

LD26 State Senate - Charlene Pesquiera.  Chose to not run for reelection in 2008.

LD26 State House - Lena Saradnik (D) and Pete Hershberger (R).  Saradnik resigned from office due to medical issues.  Hershberger ran for the Senate in 2008; lost in the primary to eventual general election victor "Atomic" Al Melvin.

LD27 State Senate - Jorge Luis Garcia.  Served as Democratic leader until he was termed out after the 2010 session.  Ran for Arizona Corporation Commission in 2010, but passed away suddenly during the campaign.

LD27 State House - Olivia Cajero Bedford and Phil Lopes (Ds).  Cajero Bedford moved to the Senate in 2010.  Lopes is retired from elected office, but is still politically active, serving as a Vice-Chair of the Arizona Democratic Party.

LD28 State Senate - Paula Aboud (D).  Stayed in the Senate through the 2012 session.  Briefly ran for Congress in 2012.

LD28 State House - David Bradley and Steve Farley (Ds).  Bradley was one of the Democratic nominees for Arizona Corporation Commission in 2010 (have I mentioned that was an R wave year? :) ).  He returned to the lege this year, winning a Senate seat last November.  Farley remained in the House, until he also won a seat in the Senate in November 2012.  Yes, due to redistricting, the House seatmates ended up in different districts for the 2012 elections.

LD29 State Senate - Victor Soltero (D).  Retired after the 2008 session.

LD29 State House - Linda Lopez and Tom Prezelski (Ds).  Lopez moved to the Senate after the 2008 election.  Prezelski was defeated in a wide-open 2008 primary.  Among other things, he has picked up blogging at the blog his brother started, Rum, Romanism, and Rebellion, cross-posting (like me) at Blog for Arizona.

LD30 State Senate - Tim Bee (R).  Served as President of the Senate, until he chose to run for Congress.  He lost in the primary.  Last seen: working as a lobbyist for U of A.

LD30 State House - Marian McClure and Jonathan Paton (Rs).  McClure ran for Arizona Corporation Commission in 2008, losing in the general election.  Paton moved over to the Senate, then became a perennial candidate for Congress, losing in the primary in 2010 and losing in the general election in 2012.

Looking at this, is it any wonder that the professional lobbyists make up the institutional memory at the Capitol?


Phoenix Justice said...


Congratulations on 8 years of blogging! I raise a glass to 8 more very informative years!

Shane McHale said...

8 years of blogging? Wow! That's a huge achievement. Congratulations! People usually get tired of writing after a couple of years but your dedication to your work is truly admirable. Keep up writing informative posts. Cheers!

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