It's not supposed to happen in legislative districts, but it appears to be happening this year, as Republican electeds decide that their districts aren't friendly enough for their ambitions. Certain legislators are packing their carpetbags and moving to environs that they think will be more conducive to a continued stay in the legislature.
It may not benefit voters much, butRepublican election attorneys will be racking some serious billable hours during the upcoming primary season.
To whit:
- State Sen. Rich Crandall (R-Mesa) recently announced that he wouldn't run for reelection, choosing to endorse newcomer Bob Worsley in the primary against former senator Russell Pearce. Then he (dare I say it? :) ), flip-flopped on the matter, saying he would run, but in another district.
- State Sen. Don Shooter (R-Yuma) is doing something similar, though where Crandall is trading a primary fight in one R-friendly district for a primary fight in another R-friendly district, Shooter is moving to avoid a D-leaning district.
Normally, I wouldn't say much about something like these moves, preferring to leave it to the voters of the districts involved to decide for themselves if they want brazen carpetbaggers to represent them (OK, I'd probably mock Crandall for his flip-flop and Shooter for his political cowardice, but that's it, really :)) ), but they lawyers may have the final say.
There's a one year residency requirement for state legislators.
Now there's some ambiguity to it - the relevent section of the Arizona Constitution requires one year residency in the county from which a legislator is elected but enforcement practice has centered on the district that the legislator/candidate is running in, not the aforementioned county.
That ambiguity may give AZSOS Ken Bennett the room to interpret the rules (dare I say it2? :) ) liberally, but given that the races in question will involve other Republicans who will stand to benefit from a stricter interpretation, the lawyers will get involved.
My guess is that they're already reaching out to the various R factions in every "safe" R district, laying the groundwork for future fees based on challenging candidates on primary ballots.
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A partial list of WHO IS NOT RUNNING for the Arizona State legislature by Bob Unferth, bobunf@aol.com as of April 7, 2012. There are about 35 races, out of 90, in which Republicans will have no opposition. Many people need to get real serious about recruiting candidates – and in a big hurry.
LD 1
NO Democrats AT ALL are running in LD 1. Cochise, Graham and Greenlee counties
Registered Republicans 47%, registered Democrats 20%, Independents 33%
LD 5
NO Democrats are running for the House in LD 5 – Mohave and La Paz
Registered Republicans 40%, registered Democrats 24%, Independents 36%
LD 11
NO Democrats are running for the House in LD 11 – North of Tucson
Registered Republicans 39%, registered Democrats 28%, Independents 33%
LD 12
NO Democrats AT ALL are running in LD 12 – Southeast Maricopa
Registered Republicans 47%, registered Democrats 21%, Independents 32%
LD 13
NO Democrats AT ALL are running in LD 13 – North Yuma and far west Maricopa
Registered Republicans 41%, registered Democrats 25%, Independents 34%
Senator Dan Shooter, the Russell Pearce appointed first term Republican chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee, running for the Senate on the Republican ticket in this district. He has a 34% approval rating according to an Arizona Working Families poll. Ds and Is outnumber Rs.
LD 15
NO Democrats AT ALL are running in LD 15 – North central Maricopa
Registered Republicans 43%, registered Democrats 23%, Independents 34%
LD 16
NO Democrat is running for the Senate in LD 16.
Registered Republicans 39%, registered Democrats 23%, Independents 38%
LD 18
NO Democrat is running for the Senate in LD 18 - South central Maricopa
Registered Republicans 37%, registered Democrats 29%, Independents 34%
There are claims that a full slate of Democrats will be running. John McComish, the Republican running for the Senate in LD18 has a 30% approval rating.
LD 20
NO Democrat is running for the Senate in LD 20 – parts of Phoenix & west central Maricopa
Registered Republicans 37%, registered Democrats 29%, Independents 34%
Linda Gray, the Republican running for the Senate in LD20 has a 30% approval rating. And no visible Democratic opponent?
LD 21
NO Democrat is running for the Senate in LD 21. - parts of Peoria and Sun City, bordered on the east by 67th Ave, on the south by Northern, on the north by Bell Rd and on the west by Litchfield Rd.
Registered Republicans 38%, registered Democrats 29%, Independents 33%
LD 22
NO Democrats AT ALL are running in LD 22 – southeast Maricopa – approximate boundaries: south of Baseline, north of Queen Creek Rd, east of Gilbert, west of Meridian (Gilbert/Mesa)
Registered Republicans 45%, registered Democrats 23%, Independents 32%
LD 23
NO Democrats AT ALL are running in LD 23 – Scottsdale, far east Maricopa
Registered Republicans 45%, registered Democrats 22%, Independents 33%
Michele Reagan, the Republican running for the Senate in this District has a 36% approval rating. And no visible Democratic opponent?
LD 25
NO Democrats AT ALL are running in LD 25 – far east Maricopa
Registered Republicans 46%, registered Democrats 23%, Independents 31%
The Democrats are not running anybody in 11 or 12 of the 30 Senate Districts, and they are not running anybody in 23 or 24 House races out of 60. Even if the Democrats win every seat in which they have a candidate, if the Republicans win 20% of the contested elections, they will have a majority in both houses.
Arizona is not that conservative a state. McCain won Arizona with only 54% of the vote. With fair redistricting this time around and the changing demographics, it doesn't make sense to let Republicans gain a majority in both houses of the legislature by forfeiting 35 seats.
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