Wednesday, July 21, 2010

The two reasons that Democrats will do far better this November than anyone expects

In most mid-term elections, the party in control of the White House loses seats in Congress. 

It's a truism in American politics, one that is based in fact - even the mighty Ronald Reagan experienced that in 1982.

As such, it won't be a surprise if/when the Democrats lose some seats in Congress in November's elections.

However, most Republicans are gleefully gloating over their anticipation of an electoral bloodbath this fall, one that could give control of one or both chambers of Congress to the Republicans.

That glee may be a little premature however.

The poll compiler website published an analysis recently on regional and demographic trends that serve to minimize (but hardly eliminate) the Democrats' vulnerability this fall.  While Republican gains seem to be all but certain at this point, their window of opportunity is smaller than what they need in order to gain control of Congress.

However, fivethirtyeight's analysis is all science and demographics and research, and I'm all about the snark today.

There are two other reasons that the Rs are in trouble this fall.

1.  Their campaign platform is to oppose anything President Obama and the Democrats proposed while urging a return to the good ol' days of George W. Bush's economic policies (you know, the policies that led to an economic meltdown and a bailout of Wall Street during Bush's watch). 

Independent voters aren't happy with Democrats' slow progress at cleaning up the mess left by the Bushies, but they do remember who caused it.

2.  The internecine skirmishing among the GOP's leadership as they jockey for increased power in a failing organization, like mobsters knocking each other off when the FBI starts closing in, is distracting them from their task of helping Republicans win elections.

It's still going to be a tough fall, but with a lot of hard work by Democrats and the Republicans' continuing self-immolation - their candidates are running on institutionalizing bigotry (every R in Arizona), protecting large corporations (i.e. - the CD5 R candidates' positions on tax credits/incentives for renewable energy), and grinding the average Americans under their bootheels -  the elections this fall present a great opportunity for those candidates and voters who support professional and competent governance.


Thane Eichenauer said...

I don't think that the details of the RNC FEC disclosure (or lack of) are going to motivate any voter one way or the other.

I would rather think that a customary loss is likely. The current administration can only be in one of three positions, We (America) is doing well, We aren't doing well and it is (insert name of other political party)'s fault, We aren't doing well and it is (insert name of scapegoat here) fault. This year isn't all that different from mid-term elections in the past even though the BSG poll might indicate otherwise.

cpmaz said...

I should have clarified -

I don't think that the FEC disclosure will change any voter's mind one way or the other, either.

However, it's an internal distraction during the home stretch of an election cycle.

BTW - as a Democrat, I'm not complaining. :))