Friday, July 09, 2010

Candidate updates

Had a few minutes to spare while waiting for, then watching, the first Democratic U.S. Senate debate...

...Dean Martin is "suspending" his campaign for governor - he was the front-runner for a brief bit, but is now polling well behind unelected incumbent Jan Brewer.  The AZ Capitol Times also speculated (subscription required) that Buz Mills will also soon be exiting the race, though the Arizona Guardian says that Mills is in for the long haul (subscription required here, too).  If Mills also leaves the race, that would leave dark horse Matthew Jette as Brewer's only challenger.

...In CD8, Republican Andy Goss has withdrawn from the race to face off against incumbent Democrat Gabrielle Giffords.  He has thrown his support behind Jesse Kelly.

...In the race to serve out Andrew Thomas' unexpired term as Maricopa County Attorney, Republican Boyd Dunn, Mayor of Chandler, has withdrawn from the race.  He had a few signs up, but was already shaping up to run a distant third behind interim (and formerly elected) County Attorney Rick Romley (Arpaio adversary) and MCAO deputy (aka: prosecutor) Bill Montgomery (Arpaio bootlicker ally).  Greg Patterson of Espresso Pundit has a snit coverage here.

Speculations on the major races (no smack talk either :) ):

...Brewer has the SB1070/nativist momentum and will win the GOP nod for governor whether or not Mills remains in the race.

...In the Democratic primary for Arizona Secretary of State, Sam Wercinski seems to have a momentum and money advantage over Chris Deschene.  However, this race could be closer than expected because Wercinski has ties to the old Napolitano machine, and they aren't popular with grassroots Ds right now.

...Race for Attorney General:  No clue, for either side of the ballot.

...In the R primary for State Treasurer, Thayer Verschoor has more signs up than the other candidates (Barbara Leff, Doug Ducey).  Of course, my observations are mostly limited to the East Valley section of Maricopa County.  And Verschoor lives here in the East Valley section of Maricopa County.

...Race for State Superintendent of Public Instruction: No clue, for either side of the ballot.

...In the race for Arizona Corporation Commission, Rs Brenda Burns and Gary Pierce *seem* to be doing better than fellow R Barry Wong - hence Wong's call to cut off utilities to anyone who cannot prove legal residency in the U.S. 

No clue on the D side of the ballot.

...In the R primary for U.S. Senate, John McCain seems to have finally noticed the candidacy of JD Hayworth, and is methodically squashing it.  Caveat:  It's an R primary, and I have no clue as to the mindset of R primary voters.

...The D primary for U.S. Senate seems pretty wide open right now, though Rodney Glassman is the presumptive frontrunner, if only because he has been meeting, greeting, and talking to Ds all over the state for much longer than the other three candidates combined (John Dougherty, Cathy Eden, and Randy Parraz).



Thane Eichenauer said...

John McCain has been meeting and greeting Arizona residents for longer than Rodney Glassman has been alive but I don't think that means he is more likely to win the upcoming election.

cpmaz said...

That's true, Thane.

My point was (and I may have been a little unclear on this) was that Glassman has been doing the legwork necessary to mount a credible campaign; the other three are late arrivals.

They may still pull off winning the nomination, but to do so, they won't be getting much sleep between now and August 24th.

I'm a D active in my local organization, and while Glassman has made many appearances at our meetings and events, Dougherty has shown up twice (one of those unscheduled), Parraz will be speaking to us this month finally, and we haven't heard anything from the Eden camp.

As for McCain, whichever D faces him in November better be out meeting and greeting as soon as the primary polls close - they will have a serious name recognition deficit to overcome.

JennsR said...

I am a Republican primary voter. I will tell you what drives us right now is the ability to not only stand up for Arizona but to have the intelligence and integrity to fight Obama on the key issues at hand. McCain has my vote because I am certain JD Hayworth does not have the qualifications necessary to successfully serve Arizona and this Nation. JD has far too many scandals under his belt, he is filled with hypocrisy and he is too much of a liar to be a positive, strong Republican Senator.

cpmaz said...

Jenns, thank you for writing.

While we are going to disagree on whether or not John McCain is the right candidate to represent AZ in DC (please contain your shock :)) ), we do agree on JD Hayworth.

He used to be my Congressman, and I have never been so embarrassed as when I had to tell folks that I was represented by someone who was always near the top of lists of the "most corrupt" and "dumbest" members of Congress.