Tuesday, January 19, 2010

Musical chairs, withdrawals, and leaps - candidate update time

As we move into the new year, the candidate picture is clearing. Note: some of this info has been covered previously, here and elsewhere. And this post is Maricopa County and Scottsdale-centered, so it will not be cross-posted at Blog for Arizona.

...As reported earlier today, State Rep. Chris Deschene (D-LD2) has officially announced that he is pursuing the Democratic nomination for Secretary of State.

...State Sen. Jonathan Paton will be joining the Republican primary in CD8 for a chance to take on Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords.

...Mayor Vernon Parker (R-Paradise Valley), as I predicted (yup, that's a shameless plug :) ) has dropped his bid for the Rep nod for Governor, instead jumping headlong into the CD3 primary to replace the retiring Congressman John Shadegg (R). He will be joining...

...State Sen. Jim Waring (R-LD7), who had been running for State Treasurer...

...State Sen. Pam Gorman (R-LD6)

...State Rep. Sam Crump (R-LD6), who had previously "explored" a run at Attorney General.

...In more musical chairs, replacing Waring in the Treasurer's race is State Senator Barbara Leff. She filed last week.

...Former Vice-Chair of the Arizona Democratic Party Vince Rabago will be joining David Lujan and Felecia Rotellini in the race for the Democratic nomination for Attorney General.

...In Scottsdale news, candidate for City Council Bill Crawford has dropped his bid, citing business concerns over the amount of time necessary to mount a campaign.

...Dennis Robbins, a Scottsdale businessman who had filed for LD8 State Representative, has now filed for Scottsdale City Council. This one had been rumored for a while, but he officially filed with the City last week.

...Not to worry. LD8 Reps, you still have plenty of choices in your primary. One Jacob Chapman has filed paperwork for a run at State Representative.

...Besides Mr. Chapman, AZ Republic blogger Paula Pennypacker has also entered the R primary in LD8. Think: redheaded version of Colette Rosati. *Very* conservative and not a "work across the aisle" type, or even a "work with all branches of the GOP" type.

...One Lori Klein, Republican, has opened an exploratory committee for an unspecified office. Given that she lists her home address as in Anthem, my best guess is that she is looking at one of the soon-to-be vacant LD6 seats.

...Republican Jay Beckstead has filed with the County for a run at County Attorney. Another sign that the current occupant is expected to be leaving office soon, whether because of his legal difficulties or for a run at AG.

...Republican Easton Kelsey has filed to run for the CD6 seat currently held by Jeff Flake. A teabagger who thinks that Jeff Flake is too liberal. Ummm...yeah.


And finally, the nominee for most poorly written headline of the week: AZCentral.com's Political Insider.

Specifically "One-tenth of state Senate running for Congress" from the normally good Mary Jo Pitzl.

Technically, she is correct, in that 3 out of the 30 current members of the state Senate are candidates for Congress (Paton - CD8, Waring and Gorman - CD3). However, her headline gives the impression that this is something unusual or that an unusually large number of Arizona senators are looking to move up/move on. She apparently has forgotten the cases of Harry Mitchell and Gabrielle Giffords in 2006 and Tim Bee and Ann Kirkpatrick in 2008.

She has also ignored the fact that another 13% of the Senate is running for statewide office (Leff and Thayer Verschoor for Treasurer, John Huppenthal for Superintendent of Public Instruction, Jorge Luis Garcia for Corporation Commission).

She has also ignored the fact that at least 20% are termed-out, retiring, or otherwise not seeking reelection to the Senate (Jack Harper, Carolyn Allen, Meg Burton Cahill, Chuck Gray, Jay Tibshraeny, Bob Burns, maybe others).

That's a guarantee of a turnover in the Senate next year of over 43%, and that number doesn't include folks who haven't yet decided to step down or those who will actually lose their races (whether in the primary or the general).

And it is still only January.

4 comments:

Martyrmama said...

Fantastic break down!

I suppose it would be silly for anyone to suggest that not a single ship-jumper should be considered a worthy leader in a higher office/platform considering they drove the state into this mess and are more focused on their political advancement than fixing this collective worng. What's more, those Rs leaving have me concerned that their vacancy in the Senate/House is leaving the door wide open for the bigger crazies to walk on through. That is, unless a more moderate mind has a chance at winning in those districts.

Of course, I only pretend to be able to keep up....

Easton C. Kelsey said...

Actually, Mr. Flake is quite liberal on his immigration and Cuba policies let alone his proposed Carbon Tax bill with Democrat Dan Lapinski.

Seeing how Guiterrez and Emmanuel are good friends of his and he plays Basketball with Obama, I think I make a good case.

I have many other examples of Mr. Flake qualifying as a RINO.

www.EastonKelsey.com

Easton C. Kelsey said...

BTW, I am a Constitutional Republican.

Richard said...

I suspect that the reporter had nothing to do with the misleading headline. Good post, although I've discovered it a month late. Thanks.