Saturday, December 20, 2008

If D17 decided elections in AZ...

...AZ's Republicans would be in the unemployment line...

In 2006, every major Democratic candidate won in LD17; the same occurred in 2008, too.

Highlights -

...Congressman Harry Mitchell and State Senator not only ran up sizeable margins of victory over their Republican challengers, their victories were broad-based. Not only did they win the overall vote, they won in each and every precinct in LD17.

...Mitchell won his home district (LD17) by more than 19,000 votes, which might lead some people of the "R" persuasion to think that Tempe is the only reason that the longtime Tempe teacher and mayor keeps beating their candidates. If they thing that, they might think wrong - Mitchell won the rest of the district by more than 7500 votes.

To put that number in perspective, in 2006 Mitchell defeated then-incumbent Republican JD Hayworth by slightly more than 8000 votes total, including his Tempe numbers.

In other words, while the CD5 seat was heavily targeted by the Reps as vulnerable for retaking, all their efforts went for naught. Harry Mitchell actually expanded his base of support.

...If LD17 decided things, Barack Obama would have received Arizona's electoral votes. He won 60 of 69 precincts on his way to a 9800 vote margin of victory in the district.

...If LD17 decided things, Ed Hermes would have defeated Fulton Brock for the District 1 seat on the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors. Hermes received more than 6000 more votes than Brock in D17 while winning 49 of the 60 precinct that are in both SD1 and LD17.

...Both Andrew Thomas and Joe Arpaio would be out of our hair. Dan Saban, Democratic candidate for sheriff, took 57 of 69 precincts in LD17 on his way to an 8200 vote margin in LD17. Tim Nelson, candidate for County Attorney, did even better against Andrew Thomas than Saban did against Joe Arpaio.

Nelson won LD17 by more than 9300 votes while taking 63 out of 69 precincts.

...In the race for state representative, the Democratic slate of Ed Ableser and David Schapira took 67 out of 69 precincts (as measured by comparing the combined totals of the two Democratic candidates against the combined totals of the Republican candidates.

...For a little perspective, remember - LD17 is still trending more Democratic (something college towns are prone to do :) ).

In October 2006, the Reps had a 970 voter registration advantage (25101 Reps to 24131 Dems).

In October 2008, that had turned around to become a Democratic registration advantage of 3663 (30096 Dem to 26433 Rep.)

More than the results of this years races, those numbers are something that potential Rep candidates in LD17 and in any jurisdiction that overlaps it (justice precincts, supervisor districts, etc.) are going to pay close attention to before they decide to throw their hats in any ring.

More later...

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