Thursday, June 26, 2008

Voter Reg Trends and other numbers

Looks like it's the week for really dry and numbers-heavy posts...

...The AZ Republic and PolitickerAZ each have stories up on the latest voter registration figures from the Arizona Secretary of State's Office. The stories discuss some of the statewide numbers and the gains that the Arizona Democratic Party has made since the 2006 election.

The SOS's voter reg figures repository is here.

A more local look at the numbers ('local' meaning CD5 and LDs 8, 17, and 18) -

In CD5, Democratic registrations have increased by more than 10000 since October of 2006 while Republican registrations are down slightly (379). Overall registrations are up a little more than 14000. The most encouraging aspect of this is that more than 71% of the increase in registered voters in CD5 since October 2006 has been Democratic.

In the shorter term, since March of this year (after the bump in registrations brought on by the Presidential primaries), Democratic registrations increased by more than 4200, Republican registrations by more than 2200 and overall registrations by 9600.

In LD8, the Democrats there continue to make headway against the daunting Rep registration advantage.

Since October 2006, Democratic registrations in LD8 have increased by over 3000; Republican registrations are up by 370, and overall registrations are up 5200.

Yes, the Democrats have more than 8 times the new registrations as the Reps since 2006.

Since March (post-primary bump), the Dems are up nearly 1000, the Reps just under 900, and overall registrations up 2600.

In LD17, Democratic registrations are up more than 2400 since October 2006, Rep registrations down more than 200, and overall registrations up 2750.

Yes, more than 88% of the overall increase since the last election is due to Democratic registrations.

Since March, Dem registrations are up 1300, Rep registrations are up 400, and overall registrations are up by more than 2600.

Yes, even post-bump, the LD17 Democrats have been adding to their 2006 momentum.

Some of the most encouraging registration numbers are in LD18, where Democratic registrations have increased by more than 1700 since October 2006 while Rep registrations have decreased by more than 700 over the same period. Overall registrations have increased by more than 1800.

Since March, Democratic registrations have increased by just under 1000, Reps by just under 600 and overall registrations by more than 2200.

The Reps still have a registration advantage in LD18, but it's now a manageable one. Tammie Pursley (House) and Judah Nativio (Senate) are running in LD18; look for one or both to pull off a major surprise come November.

Raw figures (and apologies for the formatting, or lack thereof :) ) -

Key - Party, June 2008 figures, March 2008, October 2006

CD5 -

Democratic, 96842, 92595, 86743
Republican, 138678. 136430, 139057
Overall, 329264, 319622, 315185

LD8 -

Democratic, 26536, 25555, 23500
Republican, 53525, 52654, 53155
Overall, 110687, 108085, 105458

LD17 -

Democratic, 26571,25249, 24131
Republican, 24880, 24478, 25101
Overall, 72909, 70245, 70159

LD18 -

Democratic, 15839, 14852, 14109
Republican, 25009, 24437, 25745
Overall, 55979, 53705, 54123

...The latest KAET/ASU poll asked respondents the following question - "If Arizona state government shuts down because the governor and the state legislature cannot agree on the budget, who do you think is most responsible for the impasse – the governor or the state legislature? "

52% of respondents hold the legislature most responsible for the budget impasse.

Seems like that in spite of the Republicans' best efforts to destroy public education in Arizona, some intelligence and perceptiveness still remains. :)


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