Monday, January 21, 2008

Short Attention Span Musing - Primaries Edition

...The MSM and Clinton camp are painting the results of Saturday's Nevada caucuses as a huge victory for Clinton. However, the numbers that count, the number of delegates allocated, show that the results were almost dead even. Clinton received 13 delegates; Obama 12. (MSNBC) Other say that the numbers are still 13 - 12, but favoring Obama.

Either way, not exactly an overwhelming victory.

With previously pledged superdelegates, Clinton *does* have a significant lead in delegate totals. (CNN) On the other hand, though, superdelegates are notorious front-runners. If one of the other candidates starts pulling away in the primaries, a lot of those superdelegates will throw their support to the candidate that they believe is the popular choice.

...John Edwards is easily the candidate most in need of a victory in South Carolina. He has yet to win an event, and was completely shut out of the delegate allocation in Nevada. Another showing of 3rd or worse, especially one in his home state, may just end his candidacy.

...On the Republican side, Mitt Romney's camp is painting him as the frontrunner, but he may be the weakest "frontrunner" in primary history. He has yet to win a seriously contested primary and the next major GOP test is in Florida, a state where Rudy "noun, verb, 9/11' Giuliani has been campaigning for years.

McCain has the momentum heading into Florida, Huckabee has the hardcore religious conservative vote there, Romney has the personal fortune to spend there, and it's practically a 2nd home state for Giuliani.

One of the top 4 GOP candidates will tank in Florida, and his candidacy will be history.

...A suggestion for volunteers and staffers that will be representing Democratic candidates at LD and other local groups' forums before the primary: Know your candidates' health care positions.

I've been to the LD17 and LD8 forums over the last couple of weeks, and health care was the issue that most inspired 'spirited' discussion. Expect to be grilled on this issue like no other at events like this week's forum held by the Arizona chapter of the NJDC (Tuesday at 7:00 p.m., Country Inn and Suites, 10801 89th Place, Scottsdale)

...Not that I'm one given to defending John McCain (I leave that to Politico Mafioso), but when Chuck Norris criticized McCain as too old to be president, I had to laugh. Norris is almost 68 years old and is washed up as an actor (hasn't appeared in anything other than an infomercial or a Huckabee video since 2005). McCain is a few years older but is hardly washed-up. McCain's campaign schedule alone gives lie to Norris' assertion.

John McCain may not be doing his job of representing Arizona, but that's because he has chosen not to do so, not because he is incapable of doing so.

There are many things to criticize about John McCain (remember the Chelsea Clinton joke in 1998? That kind of casual meanness alone disqualifies McCain from the presidency), but his age isn't one of them.

Give it up Chuck.

...And the best news of the day, non-primary related -

We are officially in the last year of the Bush presidency.


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