Saturday, January 08, 2011
Candlelight vigil for today's shooting victims
From the Arizona State Capitol tonight...
Harry Mitchell, one of Giffords colleagues in both the US House and the AZ Senate, speaking briefly at the vigil.
Impromptu memorial for Judge John Roll, one of the victims fatally shot today
Flags at the AZ Capitol at half staff as the sun goes down
The crowd at the vigil, more than 250 strong, sharing their grief and prayers
Don Bivens' statement on today's shootings
From Don Bivens, chair of the Arizona Democratic Party, via email -
"Words cannot express the shock and devastation we feel about today's senseless attack. Our deepest condolences go out to the families of those who were slain, and our prayers continue for Congresswoman Giffords and the others who are struggling for their lives. We remain hopeful that their conditions will stabilize and this tragedy will not claim any further victims. Gabrielle Giffords is more than a member of Congress -- she is a wife and daughter, a native of Tucson, and a dear friend. She is also one of the brightest and most dedicated public servants in our state and nation. Our thoughts remain with her and family."
Harry Mitchell's statement on today's shootings
From his Facebook page -
"This is a sad and dark day for our country, and an absolute tragedy that I don’t want to believe could happen here. My heart is shattered for the family of Gabrielle Giffords and for all the innocent people who were killed or hurt today. Gabrielle is a model Congresswoman – young, brilliant with a tremendous future – who absolutely loves her community and her constituents. She has also been a true and unwavering friend since our days serving together in the Arizona State Senate, and she is the hardest working and most dedicated public servant I have ever known. I just can’t believe this has happened."
Chief Justice Berch's statement on today's shootings in Tucson
Statement from Arizona Chief Justice Rebecca White Berch (via email) -
"This is a sad and tragic day for the judiciary, our state, and our country. The shocking events that took place this morning deeply grieve those of us in the Arizona Judiciary. Initial reports indicate that, along with Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords and many members of her staff, Chief Judge John M. Roll of the United States District Court for the District of Arizona is a victim of this tragedy and we are deeply saddened that a member of our sister judicial system, a kind man, a wise and fair jurist, and a friend to many within the legal community, has been harmed by this senseless act of violence. Our thoughts and prayers go to all of those affected by today’s shooting."More statements later...
Candlelight vigil at the AZ State Capitol tonight
Details are still unfolding, but there will be a candlelight vigil for Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords and the other victims of today's shooting in Tucson.
Right now it is scheduled for 6 p.m. at the Arizona State Capitol, 1700 W. Washington in Phoenix.
More details later...
Right now it is scheduled for 6 p.m. at the Arizona State Capitol, 1700 W. Washington in Phoenix.
More details later...
Congresswoman Giffords is alive, but in critical condition and in surgery
Multiple sources are reporting this now, some MSM (CNN just had a spokeswoman from University Hospital in Tucson), and some back channel (email and Facebook).
A call to the Pima County Sheriff's Office PIO (or whoever is acting as one on the weekend) for info on the suspected shooter (apparently in custody) found a full voicemail box. Will try again later...
Keep praying for those who are still alive, and for the loved ones of those who have died...
More later....
A call to the Pima County Sheriff's Office PIO (or whoever is acting as one on the weekend) for info on the suspected shooter (apparently in custody) found a full voicemail box. Will try again later...
Keep praying for those who are still alive, and for the loved ones of those who have died...
More later....
NPR is reporting that Congresswoman Giffords has died
From NPR -
A tragic day...
My thoughts go out to the families and friends of Congresswoman Giffords and all of the victims of today's violence...
Congresswoman, 6 Others, Killed By Gunman
Rep. Gabrielle Giffords and six others died after a gunman opened fire at a public event on Saturday, the Pima County, Ariz., sheriff's office confirms.
The 40-year-old Democrat, who was re-elected to her third term in November, was hosting a "Congress on Your Corner" event at a Safeway in northwest Tucson when a gunman ran up and started shooting, according to Peter Michaels, news director of Arizona Public Media.
A tragic day...
My thoughts go out to the families and friends of Congresswoman Giffords and all of the victims of today's violence...
Breaking: Gabrielle Giffords and staff members shot in Tucson
Details are sketchy right now, but from NPR -
Right now, only Fox News seems to be covering this. Not even the AZ Star or Republic has anything up as yet...
My thoughts and prayers are will Giffords and all of the victims of the shooting today...
U.S. Rep. Gabrielle Giffords of Arizona was shot outside a grocery store in Tucson while holding a public event, Arizona Public Media reported Saturday.
The Democrat, who was re-elected to her third term in November, was hosting a "Congress on Your Corner" event at the Safeway in northwest Tucson when a gunman ran up and started shooting, according to Peter Michaels, news director of Arizona Public Media.
At least five other people, including members of her staff, were hurt. Giffords was transported to University Medical Center in Tucson. Her condition was not immediately known.
Giffords was talking to a couple when the suspect ran up firing indiscriminately and then ran off, Michaels said. According to other witnesses, he was tackled by a bystander and taken into custody.
Giffords was first elected to represent Arizona's 8th District in 2006. The "Congress on Your Corner" events allow constituents to present their concerns directly to her.
More details to come.
Right now, only Fox News seems to be covering this. Not even the AZ Star or Republic has anything up as yet...
My thoughts and prayers are will Giffords and all of the victims of the shooting today...
David Schweikert: Health care hypocrite
To be fair to our Foreclosure Dave though, it's not like he was alone.
On Wednesday, the new Republican majority in the U.S. House passed all sorts of new rules for the 112th Congress. Some of them are really interesting, but we'll save those for another day.
The highlight of the rules package was one that *didn't* make it into the package.
Rep. Joseph Crowley (D-NY) proposed a rule that would have required members of Congress to disclose whether or not they take advantage of the taxpayer-funded and government-run health care offered to members.
The proposal was defeated on a party-line vote, 191 - 238.
Huffington Post has a full report here.
Now, I could criticize all 238 Republicans who voted to defeat transparency, but they aren't the elected representatives of Arizona's 5th Congressional District.
David Schweikert is.
David Schweikert is the one, who on his website, stated "the liberal politicians in Washington continue to support government run healthcare that will effectively dismantle our healthcare system."
He's pledged to work for the repeal of health care reform and coverage for the average American...
Yet on the same day that he voted to conceal his and other members' acceptance of taxpayer-funded health insurance, he also voted to pass H. Res. 26, providing for next week's consideration of H.R. 2, the Republican scheme to repeal the health care reform and coverage for the average American.
So Schweikert is a *conservative* politician in Washington who supports "government run healthcare" for people who will "dismantle" healthcare for average Americans.
Something tells me that this won't be the last example of shameless hypocrisy coming from Schweikert.
On Wednesday, the new Republican majority in the U.S. House passed all sorts of new rules for the 112th Congress. Some of them are really interesting, but we'll save those for another day.
The highlight of the rules package was one that *didn't* make it into the package.
Rep. Joseph Crowley (D-NY) proposed a rule that would have required members of Congress to disclose whether or not they take advantage of the taxpayer-funded and government-run health care offered to members.
The proposal was defeated on a party-line vote, 191 - 238.
Huffington Post has a full report here.
Now, I could criticize all 238 Republicans who voted to defeat transparency, but they aren't the elected representatives of Arizona's 5th Congressional District.
David Schweikert is.
David Schweikert is the one, who on his website, stated "the liberal politicians in Washington continue to support government run healthcare that will effectively dismantle our healthcare system."
He's pledged to work for the repeal of health care reform and coverage for the average American...
Yet on the same day that he voted to conceal his and other members' acceptance of taxpayer-funded health insurance, he also voted to pass H. Res. 26, providing for next week's consideration of H.R. 2, the Republican scheme to repeal the health care reform and coverage for the average American.
So Schweikert is a *conservative* politician in Washington who supports "government run healthcare" for people who will "dismantle" healthcare for average Americans.
Something tells me that this won't be the last example of shameless hypocrisy coming from Schweikert.
Friday, January 07, 2011
The State Of Our State Conference
Spent the morning in downtown Phoenix with approximately 200 folks, elected officials, agency heads, and community members listening to some really smart people talk about the fundamental underpinnings of Arizona's budget deficit.
The insights were provided by people like David Stockman, formerly the Reagan Administration budget chief, George Cunningham, a former state legislator and staffer/advisor for Governors Mofford and Napolitano, economist Alan Maguire, Dr. Matt Murray of the University of Tennessee - Knoxville, Jim Rounds, an economist with Elliott D. Pollack and Company, and Craig Sullivan, executive director of the (Arizona) County Supervisors Association.
While some supported a more "cut spending" based approached and others supported a more "increase revenues" based one, all agreed that a more balanced and forward thinking approach to budgeting is needed in Arizona.
There were a large number of electeds in the audience (John McComish, Bob Burns, Chad Campbell, Eric Meyer, Carolyn Allen, Don Shooter, Ruben Gallego [all lege, current or incoming], Ken Bennett [AZ SOS], and probably more that I missed), but unfortunately, the ones who most get it are Ds (Meyer, Campbell, Gallego) or soon to retire (Allen).
This is oversimplifying (a good summary would be too complex for this outlet), but basically the combination of permanent tax cuts and spending programs enacted during economic boom years combined with the 1992 amendment to the Arizona Constitution that requires a 2/3 vote of the lege to increase revenues has rendered the state almost bankrupt and without the ability (in practical terms) to fix the problems.
The report published this week by the Morrison Institute and Brookings Mountain West is available on this page.
The meeting was recorded, and once the Institute posts the video, I'll link to it. Also, they'll eventually post some of the Powerpoint presentations that the experts gave to help illustrate Arizona's plight.
Until those items are posted, here are a few quotes:
...This situation is a "failure in our national logic." - Dr. Michael Crow, President of ASU, referring to the national economic trend away from *building* things (manufacturing) and toward just reselling things (aka - the housing bubble)
..."Both parties are completely faking" on fiscal matters - Stockman, criticizing the Democrats for not having a fiscal plan for America, short of campaigning on "tax the rich" and "stop the wars"...and then not even doing that much, and going on to criticize the Republicans for being even worse, talking about fiscal responsibility and then actually working to undermine fiscal solvency with targeted tax cuts that weren't matched with spending cuts. He noted that none of the Reagan-era spending cuts remains.
Other highlights from Stockman:
- The White House "rolled over and declared 'party on' " with the recent surrender on continued tax cuts for the wealthiest 2%
- The Russian state is "the most gigantic kleptocracy" in history
- Quantitative easing, or QE2, is nothing more than the Federal Reserve "printing money and monetizing debt" and that it has never worked. Think "Weimar Republic" (my term, not his)
- " 'Deficit today' is another way of saying 'taxes tomorrow.' "
- Said that the belief/ mantra that 'tax cuts pay for themselves' is a "hoary myth."
...Dr. Murray suggested that Arizona should "broaden, balance, and diversify" its tax base and fiscal policies
...He also said that "Arizona is at a crossroads" but is only a part of a "long decay" across the country (economically)
...Maguire predicted that FY2014 will be a "very, very, ugly year" due to the expiration of the temporary sales tax increase enacted earlier this year and the expected unwillingness/inability of the feds to help any more than they already have
...Sullivan said that counties have been preparing for this mess since 2007, with mixed success, but all are subject to the vagaries and whims of the legislature. AKA the lege has been trying to balance its budget by taking money from the counties and giving them more things to be responsible for
- Rounds favors cuts to spending first and adding revenues 2nd, but like the others, doesn't believe that cuts only will successfully address AZ's problems
- Cunningham says that tax cuts right now, such as the business tax cuts proposed/threatened by the Rs in the legislature, would be "fiscally imprudent"
- Rounds believes that while a "competitive" tax environment helps economic development, particularly in attracting businesses from out of state, but that "fiscal stability" is even more important, because instability will drive away business, no matter what the tax environment looks like
So far, I haven't found any other write ups of the event, though there were some MSM representatives there today, including Mary Jo Pitzl of the Arizona Republic. When/if any are posted, I'll link to them here.
Also, it will be interesting on Monday to see if the Governor takes any lessons from the study or the State Of Our State conference into her State of the State speech.
I'm betting she won't, but I'm rather cynical. (Yes, that it a surprise to most readers, I'm sure. :) )
I'm not sure exactly what to take away from this, because a lot of this was already known, but to see the actual numbers was eye-opening and jaw-dropping.
I guess the best thing would be for everybody to contact their legislators (yes, even the Rs) to remind them that blindly cutting taxes isn't being "fiscally responsible."
It's just politically lazy. And fiscally destructive.
The insights were provided by people like David Stockman, formerly the Reagan Administration budget chief, George Cunningham, a former state legislator and staffer/advisor for Governors Mofford and Napolitano, economist Alan Maguire, Dr. Matt Murray of the University of Tennessee - Knoxville, Jim Rounds, an economist with Elliott D. Pollack and Company, and Craig Sullivan, executive director of the (Arizona) County Supervisors Association.
While some supported a more "cut spending" based approached and others supported a more "increase revenues" based one, all agreed that a more balanced and forward thinking approach to budgeting is needed in Arizona.
There were a large number of electeds in the audience (John McComish, Bob Burns, Chad Campbell, Eric Meyer, Carolyn Allen, Don Shooter, Ruben Gallego [all lege, current or incoming], Ken Bennett [AZ SOS], and probably more that I missed), but unfortunately, the ones who most get it are Ds (Meyer, Campbell, Gallego) or soon to retire (Allen).
This is oversimplifying (a good summary would be too complex for this outlet), but basically the combination of permanent tax cuts and spending programs enacted during economic boom years combined with the 1992 amendment to the Arizona Constitution that requires a 2/3 vote of the lege to increase revenues has rendered the state almost bankrupt and without the ability (in practical terms) to fix the problems.
The report published this week by the Morrison Institute and Brookings Mountain West is available on this page.
The meeting was recorded, and once the Institute posts the video, I'll link to it. Also, they'll eventually post some of the Powerpoint presentations that the experts gave to help illustrate Arizona's plight.
Until those items are posted, here are a few quotes:
...This situation is a "failure in our national logic." - Dr. Michael Crow, President of ASU, referring to the national economic trend away from *building* things (manufacturing) and toward just reselling things (aka - the housing bubble)
..."Both parties are completely faking" on fiscal matters - Stockman, criticizing the Democrats for not having a fiscal plan for America, short of campaigning on "tax the rich" and "stop the wars"...and then not even doing that much, and going on to criticize the Republicans for being even worse, talking about fiscal responsibility and then actually working to undermine fiscal solvency with targeted tax cuts that weren't matched with spending cuts. He noted that none of the Reagan-era spending cuts remains.
Other highlights from Stockman:
- The White House "rolled over and declared 'party on' " with the recent surrender on continued tax cuts for the wealthiest 2%
- The Russian state is "the most gigantic kleptocracy" in history
- Quantitative easing, or QE2, is nothing more than the Federal Reserve "printing money and monetizing debt" and that it has never worked. Think "Weimar Republic" (my term, not his)
- " 'Deficit today' is another way of saying 'taxes tomorrow.' "
- Said that the belief/ mantra that 'tax cuts pay for themselves' is a "hoary myth."
...Dr. Murray suggested that Arizona should "broaden, balance, and diversify" its tax base and fiscal policies
...He also said that "Arizona is at a crossroads" but is only a part of a "long decay" across the country (economically)
...Maguire predicted that FY2014 will be a "very, very, ugly year" due to the expiration of the temporary sales tax increase enacted earlier this year and the expected unwillingness/inability of the feds to help any more than they already have
...Sullivan said that counties have been preparing for this mess since 2007, with mixed success, but all are subject to the vagaries and whims of the legislature. AKA the lege has been trying to balance its budget by taking money from the counties and giving them more things to be responsible for
- Rounds favors cuts to spending first and adding revenues 2nd, but like the others, doesn't believe that cuts only will successfully address AZ's problems
- Cunningham says that tax cuts right now, such as the business tax cuts proposed/threatened by the Rs in the legislature, would be "fiscally imprudent"
- Rounds believes that while a "competitive" tax environment helps economic development, particularly in attracting businesses from out of state, but that "fiscal stability" is even more important, because instability will drive away business, no matter what the tax environment looks like
So far, I haven't found any other write ups of the event, though there were some MSM representatives there today, including Mary Jo Pitzl of the Arizona Republic. When/if any are posted, I'll link to them here.
Also, it will be interesting on Monday to see if the Governor takes any lessons from the study or the State Of Our State conference into her State of the State speech.
I'm betting she won't, but I'm rather cynical. (Yes, that it a surprise to most readers, I'm sure. :) )
I'm not sure exactly what to take away from this, because a lot of this was already known, but to see the actual numbers was eye-opening and jaw-dropping.
I guess the best thing would be for everybody to contact their legislators (yes, even the Rs) to remind them that blindly cutting taxes isn't being "fiscally responsible."
It's just politically lazy. And fiscally destructive.
Thursday, January 06, 2011
John Boehner: When reality and ideology conflict, ignore reality
From the Washington Post -
Of course, this isn't really a surprise, since the "fiscally responsible" Republicans spent more than a million dollars of the public's money today on a photo op.
House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) on Thursday defended House Republicans' efforts to repeal the national health care law, disputing the accuracy of a preliminary Congressional Budget Office estimate that a repeal of the law would add $230 billion to the national debt through 2021.To summarize: because of their ideology, the "fiscally responsible" Republicans want to block health care for Americans, even if health care reform was both beneficial to the average American *and* the federal budget deficit.
"I do not believe that repealing the job-killing health care law will increase the deficit," Boehner said at a Capitol press conference the day after the GOP formally regained the House majority. "CBO is entitled to their opinion, but they're locked within constraints of the 1974 Budget Act. Listen, even the actuaries at the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid have made clear that this bill will not save the kind of money that was predicted earlier."
Of course, this isn't really a surprise, since the "fiscally responsible" Republicans spent more than a million dollars of the public's money today on a photo op.
John McCain hired by The Daily Show*
*OK, not really, but they did introduce a puppet that is so incredibly life-like it could be a clone...
Tedski at Rum, Romanism, and Rebellion already has this, but it's too funny not to post it here, too.
Photo courtesy TPM.
From the accompanying article, which includes video -
Tedski at Rum, Romanism, and Rebellion already has this, but it's too funny not to post it here, too.
Photo courtesy TPM.
From the accompanying article, which includes video -
After the 112th Congress convened yesterday, Jon Stewart celebrated his pick for the Senate's grumpiest member: Sen. John McCain (R-AZ)By the way, no matter what some may think, that's not a rude gesture in the pic. Jon Stewart asked McCain/the puppet how many homes he has. It's not the right answer, but at least it's better than his previous answer of "I don't know".
"McCain's old-man crankiness has gone off the charts," Stewart said last night. "On the scale, he's clearly gone from a man of wisdom all the way to full Gran Torino."
Do you have one of these jobs?
Thanks for the heads-up on this goes to Govexec.com's FedBlog.
The 20 best and worst jobs, based a variety of criteria, from CareerCast.com -
Top 20:
1. software engineer
2. mathematician
3. actuary
4. statistician
5. computer systems analyst
6. meteorologist
7. biologist
8. historian
9. audiologist
10. dental hygenist
11. sociologist
12. accountant
13. paralegal assistant
13. physicist
15. financial planner
16. philosopher
17. occupational therapist
18. parole officer
19. aerospace engineer
20. economist
The bottom 20:
180. choreographer
181. plasterer
182. butcher
183. automobile mechanic
184. dairy farmer
185. photojournalist
186. child care worker
187. sheet metal worker
188. reporter (newspaper)
189. seaman
190. stevedore
191. painter
191. meter reader
191. construction worker (laborer)
194. welder
195. emergency medical technician
196. taxi driver
197. roofer
198. lumberjack
199. ironworker
200. roustabout (linked to the Wikipedia page on it because it is the worst.)
Some of the "worst" made the list because of the physical demands (roustabout), some because of the low income potential (child care worker) and some because of the poor outlook for the field (reporter).
However, the one that I'm trying to figure out is how "philosopher" made the top 20. How can I get paid to go around all day saying "I think, therefore I am"? Hell, if they pay me enough, I'll even say it in Latin (Cogito, ergo sum).
The 20 best and worst jobs, based a variety of criteria, from CareerCast.com -
Top 20:
1. software engineer
2. mathematician
3. actuary
4. statistician
5. computer systems analyst
6. meteorologist
7. biologist
8. historian
9. audiologist
10. dental hygenist
11. sociologist
12. accountant
13. paralegal assistant
13. physicist
15. financial planner
16. philosopher
17. occupational therapist
18. parole officer
19. aerospace engineer
20. economist
The bottom 20:
180. choreographer
181. plasterer
182. butcher
183. automobile mechanic
184. dairy farmer
185. photojournalist
186. child care worker
187. sheet metal worker
188. reporter (newspaper)
189. seaman
190. stevedore
191. painter
191. meter reader
191. construction worker (laborer)
194. welder
195. emergency medical technician
196. taxi driver
197. roofer
198. lumberjack
199. ironworker
200. roustabout (linked to the Wikipedia page on it because it is the worst.)
Some of the "worst" made the list because of the physical demands (roustabout), some because of the low income potential (child care worker) and some because of the poor outlook for the field (reporter).
However, the one that I'm trying to figure out is how "philosopher" made the top 20. How can I get paid to go around all day saying "I think, therefore I am"? Hell, if they pay me enough, I'll even say it in Latin (Cogito, ergo sum).
Wednesday, January 05, 2011
In case you were wondering where Christine O'Donnell went after the election
From NPR -
Solace for world leaders trying to enforce painful austerity measures: At least you're not running Romania.OK, she's not actually involved in this (I think!) but it's not as boring, or as unsurprising, a story as the one about her legal troubles.
Angry witches are using cat excrement and dead dogs to cast spells on the president and government who are forcing them to pay taxes. Also in the eye of the taxman are fortune tellers, who should have seen it coming.
Report: Arizona's budgeting politicized and short-sighted
ASU's Morrison Institute for Public Policy and Brookings Mountain West, a joint enterprise of both the Brookings Institute and UNLV, have released a report on the long-term fiscal crisis facing Arizona.
Mary Jo Pitzl of the Arizona Republic has a good summary here, but the short version is that Arizona has both a cyclical deficit and a structural deficit.
The cyclical deficit is related to the downturn in the economy. Because much of the state's revenue comes taxes that are based on economic activity (sales and income taxes), a drop in economic activity results in a drop in state revenue. The cyclical deficit will grow or shrink with the economy.
An economic recovery will reduce or eliminate a cyclical deficit.
The structural deficit is more problematical. A structural deficit is a "chronic" imbalance between between a state's (or any other entity's) revenues and expenditures. It is based in policy (like permanent tax cuts) but can be obscured by a strong economy and the cyclical surplus that can go along with it.
Unfortunately, an economic recovery has no impact on a structural deficit. The only way to affect a structural deficit is to change underlying fiscal policy.
Arizona is feeling the pain of generations of fiscal policies that are unwise and/or short-sighted, mostly characterized by permanent tax cuts or spending enacted during economic boom periods.
From the report (brief fact sheet here) -
My solution, or at least the first steps to a solution, and I'm under no illusions that these are ever going to come to pass:
1. Persuade the voters of Arizona to suspend for two or four years, the provisions of 1992's Prop 108 that mandated a 2/3 vote of the legislature to raise revenue. The suspension would be temporary because it *shouldn't* be easy for "citizen" legislators to raise taxes. It just shouldn't be impossible, and due to the nihilist/corporate ideologies permeating the Capitol, it is impossible right now.
2. Accept that we can't only cut or tax our way out of the mess, and elect enough Democrats to ensure passage of fiscally sensible legislation (Say...2/3 of each chamber to override the inevitable Brewer vetos). Cuts will still be necessary, and they'll be painful. But that beats the punitive and ineffective cuts that the Republicans have and will make.
Some readers might believe that this one is pure partisanship, but the simple fact is that any Republican with the juice to get through a Republican primary and the spine (and heart) to do what is right for the long-term benefit of Arizona and its residents has been purged from the Republican Party or at least from public office.
That leaves it to the Democrats to clean up this mess.
3. At the same time as #1, persuade the voters of Arizona to pass an amendment to the AZ Constitution that would mandate a 2/3 vote of the legislature to reduce revenues in any way, be it through tax cuts or credits or fee reductions or whatever. It also shouldn't be easy for "citizen" legislators, many of whom aren't more than talented amateurs when it comes to governing, to mess with the fiscal stability of the state.
None of this will happen, but *something* does need to change - the status quo is destroying Arizona.
The report will be discussed as part of a conference on Friday at the Sheraton Hotel Downtown Phoenix, 340 N. Third Street, Phoenix, starting at 7:30 a.m.
David Stockman, former budget chief during the Reagan Administration, and a number of economists will be part of the discussion.
Mary Jo Pitzl of the Arizona Republic has a good summary here, but the short version is that Arizona has both a cyclical deficit and a structural deficit.
The cyclical deficit is related to the downturn in the economy. Because much of the state's revenue comes taxes that are based on economic activity (sales and income taxes), a drop in economic activity results in a drop in state revenue. The cyclical deficit will grow or shrink with the economy.
An economic recovery will reduce or eliminate a cyclical deficit.
The structural deficit is more problematical. A structural deficit is a "chronic" imbalance between between a state's (or any other entity's) revenues and expenditures. It is based in policy (like permanent tax cuts) but can be obscured by a strong economy and the cyclical surplus that can go along with it.
Unfortunately, an economic recovery has no impact on a structural deficit. The only way to affect a structural deficit is to change underlying fiscal policy.
Arizona is feeling the pain of generations of fiscal policies that are unwise and/or short-sighted, mostly characterized by permanent tax cuts or spending enacted during economic boom periods.
From the report (brief fact sheet here) -
Political decisions can play a huge role in budget dynamics, as changes made to a state’s fiscal structure in one budget cycle can and often do have significant effects on its long-term fiscal health. During periods of strong economic growth, for example, states often enjoy cyclical budget surpluses. Decisionmakers often fail, however, to consider that these surges in revenue are temporary. For that reason, state budget surpluses are rarely saved in their entirety, with only a fraction typically committed to rainy day funds. More often, the bulk of such surpluses is given back to taxpayers through permanent tax cuts or used to support permanent spending increases. As a result, a fiscal shortfall typically emerges during a downturn that includes both the cyclical deficit along with any structural deficit arising from the long-term tax/ expenditure mismatch created during previous periods of economic expansion. In this way, policy decisions made by state legislatures or directly by the voting public, as well as by federal mandate, can contribute substantially to the emergence of permanent, recurrent budget imbalances. For example, voter initiatives may be introduced that mandate higher spending or that place restrictions on the effective capacity of states to raise revenues—initiatives that, as noted above, can become fiscally unsustainable as the economy progresses through the classic boom-and-bust cycle.The entire report, as well as a Brookings report on deficits in California and the Intermountain West (includes Colorado and Nevada, as well as Arizona) is worth a read.
My solution, or at least the first steps to a solution, and I'm under no illusions that these are ever going to come to pass:
1. Persuade the voters of Arizona to suspend for two or four years, the provisions of 1992's Prop 108 that mandated a 2/3 vote of the legislature to raise revenue. The suspension would be temporary because it *shouldn't* be easy for "citizen" legislators to raise taxes. It just shouldn't be impossible, and due to the nihilist/corporate ideologies permeating the Capitol, it is impossible right now.
2. Accept that we can't only cut or tax our way out of the mess, and elect enough Democrats to ensure passage of fiscally sensible legislation (Say...2/3 of each chamber to override the inevitable Brewer vetos). Cuts will still be necessary, and they'll be painful. But that beats the punitive and ineffective cuts that the Republicans have and will make.
Some readers might believe that this one is pure partisanship, but the simple fact is that any Republican with the juice to get through a Republican primary and the spine (and heart) to do what is right for the long-term benefit of Arizona and its residents has been purged from the Republican Party or at least from public office.
That leaves it to the Democrats to clean up this mess.
3. At the same time as #1, persuade the voters of Arizona to pass an amendment to the AZ Constitution that would mandate a 2/3 vote of the legislature to reduce revenues in any way, be it through tax cuts or credits or fee reductions or whatever. It also shouldn't be easy for "citizen" legislators, many of whom aren't more than talented amateurs when it comes to governing, to mess with the fiscal stability of the state.
None of this will happen, but *something* does need to change - the status quo is destroying Arizona.
The report will be discussed as part of a conference on Friday at the Sheraton Hotel Downtown Phoenix, 340 N. Third Street, Phoenix, starting at 7:30 a.m.
David Stockman, former budget chief during the Reagan Administration, and a number of economists will be part of the discussion.
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