Horse Race time - Chaplik is in the AZCD1 race

News broke this week that Republican state representative Joe Chaplik (LD3) has entered the race the outgoing member of Congress in CD1, David Schweikert.  

Schweikert is running for governor of Arizona.

The person most hurt by his entry into the CD1 race may be Gina Swoboda.  She's the current chair of the AZGOP, and prior to Chaplik's entry, the biggest "name" in the race (quotes used because while they have more notoriety/name recognition than the other candidates, it's limited [not everyone is a political geek like me and know who major party chairs and members of the state legislature are])

The person most helped by his entry into the CD1 race may be one of those low name rec candidates.  If Swoboda and Chaplik spend the primary season launching political haymakers at each other, it may open up a path to victory in that race for one the others.

Also, while nominating signatures are due to be submitted by April 6, 2026, it's still early enough for a well-funded "big name" to enter the race.

Currently 12 Democrats and 10 Republicans have filed a Statement of Interest (SOI) in the race (filed with the Arizona Secretary of State)and/or formed a committee for run with the FEC (one Libertarian has an open committee, but is was formed in 2024 and has been receiving letters about a failure to file reports, so that person may not be running this year).

Below is a list of folks who have filed an SOI and/or formed a committee for a run next year.  In the date section, if no year is specified, the year is 2025.  Also, one date format is month (as text) followed by date.  That's because my spreadsheet program kept changing 3/4 to a fraction.

The vast majority of potential D candidates here filed their paperwork before Scheikert exited the race; the vast majority of Rs did so after.

Not all people who express interest/form a committee will be on a ballot.

I'm not going make any prediction regarding the outcome of race for the R nomination here - my prognosticating ability in R races is almost nonexistent.

As for the D race, no prediction until I see who's actually going to be on the ballot.

Caveat: CD1 in my district.

That sound you hear is shoes dropping in multiple CDs

...Expect more "names" to enter these races (and more)...

- the former sheriff of Pinal County, Mark Lamb, has filed a Statement of Interest (SOI) with the AZSOS for a run at replacing Andy Biggs in CD5.

...as was widely expected, the current chair of the AZGOP, Gina Swoboda has throw her hat in the CD1 race to replace David Schweikert - she's formed a committee with the FEC -

Both Biggs and Schweikert are running for AZ Governor.

Arizona Mirror has stories up on Lamb and Swoboda.

A couple of new names in election races in AZ

One's not a surprise at all and one is a bit of surprise.

First up: the one that isn't a surprise.

From AZPM, written by Christopher Conover -

Adelita Grijalva enters CD 7 race

Adelita Grijalva announced Monday morning that she is entering the race to take her late father's place in the U.S. House of Representatives.

Grijalva has followed in her father's footsteps, serving on the Tucson Unified School District Governing Board and on the Pima County Board of Supervisors.

In a written statement, she said," I've spent my life as an advocate, fighting for the brighter future we all deserve."

As for the one that's a bit of a surprise:

From the statements of interest filed with the AZ Secretary of State -

From KJZZ, written by Camryn Sanchez -

Far-right candidate Rep. Alexander Kolodin joins 2026 Arizona secretary of state race

Far-right state Rep. Alexander Kolodin is challenging Democratic Secretary of State Adrian Fontes in 2026.

The Scottsdale Republican began his campaign on Monday dodging questions about his history of claiming elections aren’t safe.

As of this writing, neither the FEC (in Grijalva's case) nor the AZ Secretary of State (in Kolodin's case) lists a campaign committee for either one one their respective websites.

In Grijalva's case, her entry into the Congressional race was long rumored; as for Kolodin, that was a bit of a surprise - the far right Freedom Caucus, of which Kolodin is a member, absolutely *hates* the current AZSOS, Adrian Fontes. and Kolodin wanted to be the first big name into the race.

My guess: he won't be the last.  The KJZZ story goes on to talk about how Gina Swoboda, the current chair of the AZGOP, is looking at the race, too.