Saturday, December 24, 2011

Time to state the obvious: Mitt Romney will be the Republican nominee

...Yes, for months it has seemed likely that Romney would be the nominee in spite of his tepid support (at best) among the tea party/most extreme wing of the GOP.  Every few weeks, a new darling of the screamers arose, only to fall by the wayside as their (metaphorical) warts were exposed by the glare of the light of scrutiny that all front-runners face.

Still, it's a large field, meaning that a candidate could win a state's primary/caucus with 20 - 25% of the vote.

Only now the field is getting smaller, without anyone actually getting out of the race.

From Time Magazine, written by Will Lester -

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Texas Gov. Rick Perry have failed to qualify for Virginia's March 6 Republican primary, a setback in their bids for the Republican presidential nomination.

Also not on the ballot, courtesy the Arlington County (VA) GOP - Michelle Bachmann, Jon Huntsman, Rick Santorum, and Gary Johnson.

That leaves Romney on the VA ballot alone with Ron Paul. 

Now, Paul has a small but dedicated core group of followers in the far-right reaches of the Republican Party, but his usually extreme (even by the GOP's standards) positions make him all but unelectable in a contested general election.

His party's poo-bahs (insiders and power brokers) won't allow him to get even within sniffing difference of the actual nomination, though he may win a few primaries or caucuses.

In the end, the R nominee will be Romney, with someone like Chris Christie or Tim Pawlenty as the VP candidate.

Next November's election will be about returning Barack Obama to office, perhaps with a Congress that won't be dedicated to keeping the economy cratered for political gain, or returning to the blindly pro-greed and pro-corporate bottom line policies that got the US and world into this mess.

Note: as of this writing, Romney and Paul are the only two "major" candidates on the ballot for Arizona's Republican primary, though the others have another couple of weeks to submit their names.

5 comments:

Thane Eichenauer said...

So the Bildenbergers have you on retainer too huh?

As to whether the eventual person selected by the Electoral College is a slave to the corporate bottom line I will have to examine that person's support of fascist policies to tell.

As for the Ron Paul newsletters you might make a case that they were his positions in 1993 but it is 2012 and the Ron Paul positions that matters are found here.

As for Ron Paul's small but dedicated group of followers his campaign has raised more money than Rick Santorum, more than Newt Gingrich, more than Michelle Bachmann and more than Jon Huntsman all of which have just as much opportunity to be the Republican nominee as Ron Paul has.

The question (for at least 6 more months) is "Who will be the Republican nominee?"

Phoenix Justice said...

@Thane,

As much as the Congressman Paul's supporters might wish, he will never be the Republican Presidential nominee. The true "powers that be" within the Republican Party won't allow it.

My outside pick for the Republican Presidential nominee is still former Florida governor, Jeb Bush with Governor Christie as his V.P. nominee.

cpmaz said...

No Thane, I'm not the payroll of any international cabal.

My post was not intended to be nor should it be taken as support of Romney, nor is it a put down of Paul.

Personally, I don't like either one as a candidate for office.

I will say, as evidenced by the fact that Paul is on the ballots of the early states and has been successful raising funds, that Paul has a much better "on the ground" organization than the other candidates.

However, I've got to agree with PJ on this - the powers of the GOP will never all him near the presidential ticket.

PJ - The only way Bush gets the nomination at this point is as a compromise candidate at a brokered convention. It could happen, but I think he is positioning himself for 2016 (if Obama wins reelection) or 2020 (if the Rs win the White House next year).

Phoenix Justice said...

@Cpmaz,

I think, between January 3rd & 15th Jeb could declare and have an effective campaign up and running by February 1st. The GOP elite is still looking for "anybody but Romney", even with the "endorsements" trickling in. Plus, so much money would flood toward Jeb, it wouldn't be funny.

Also, the GOP Primary/Caucuses in 2012 don't do Mr. Romney any favors as I believe all them before April are proportional. That would give Jeb plenty of time to get on the ballots of the states where its winner takes all.

Thane Eichenauer said...

Call me a naive fool but I believe that the power of free agency (and I might even get Mitt Romney and Jon Huntsman to agree with me on this one) is more powerful than any clique that others believe make the decisions for those who consider themselves Republicans.