EJ Montini of the Arizona Republic published an interesting column in Thursday's paper about Jan Brewer's tendency to spout bigoted but baseless (my term, not his) stereotypes and fabricated statistics (also my term - he used "exaggerated") when discussing immigration.
The example he cited involved her saying, during a debate between the R candidates for governor that the majority of undocumented immigrants were engaged in narcotics trafficking and extortion and that they are responsible for a massive crime wave in Arizona.
As this Think Progress piece from writer Andrea Nill points out, during a period in Arizona's history that has seen an increase in undocumented immigration, there has been an actual decrease in crime in AZ.
This falsehood was pointed out by dark horse R Matthew Jette, but to no avail.
Jan stuck by her misfiring mouth, and continued to spout the same stuff.
In Montini's piece, he began by predicting that Brewer will win the November election because of SB1070.
I'm not so sure (I know, it's not exactly shocking that a Goddard supporter would disagree with Montini's point. :) ).
While the bill was fronted in AZ by nativist demagogue Russell Pearce, she has made it hers, and by doing so, has locked up the support of a significant part of Arizona's electorate, the nativists.
*That* has all but guaranteed her the R nomination, especially since the other contenders are falling fast (Dean Martin has almost no money and won't be getting any any time soon, Buz Mills can't even get the endorsement of the NRA, and he sits on the Board of Directors of it) or never were a factor in the first place (Jette would be a legit dark horse in most other states; in AZ, however, his reasoned yet honest approach will net him less than 5% of the primary vote - Rs will consider his calling out the numbers and stereotypes spouted on the immigration issue as the equivalent of shouting "the emperor has no clothes!" and will close their ears).
However, for SB1070 to guarantee Brewer's win in November's general election, the lege should have passed it and she should have signed it in early October.
Not late April.
As it is, people will have had the time to actually understand the effect of SB1070 on *everybody*, not just those "durn Mexicans."
By the time early ballots go out in October, the law may have (and should be) blocked by a federal court because of its unconstitution overreaching.
At which point, Terry Goddard's approach of going after the cartels and hitting them where it hurts - in the wallet - a less showy but far more effective - and legal! - tactic will look good to the vast array of independent voters in Arizona.
Especially when Brewer's side of the issue is marked by neo-Nazis going on