Based on a quick perusal of the Secretary of State's webpage of candidates, which isn't necessarily final, depending on successful challenges to petition sigs (rare, but not unheard of) or successful write-in candidacies (rare to the point of being unheard of).
However, the primary ballots for all of the parties has pretty much taken shape, and there are some surprises.
Quick takes on some of the aforementioned primaries -
- Democratic, US Senate - Five weeks ago, Rodney Glassman looked like a shoo-in, as he was the only active D candidate (Rudy Garcia had formed a committee, but that may have been the high point of his campaign, as he didn't even file sigs.) Then John McCain started looking very vulnerable against JD Hayworth, and suddenly there were three other D candidates gathering signatures, and they all filed - Cathy Eden, Randy Parraz, and John Dougherty all submitted sigs.
For now, Glassman remains the favorite because he has had feet on the ground for months, but that hardly assures his victory.
- Republican, CD1, U.S. Congress - Nine, count 'em NINE, Republicans are running for the chance to oppose incumbent Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick. I've got no idea who will come out of the primary here, but the most familiar names are Sydney Hay, the mining industry lobbyist who was the R nominee in 2008 and former legislator Rusty Bowers.
- Republican, CD3, U.S. Congress - There are TEN Republicans who filed sigs in this race to replace the soon-to-be retired John Shadegg. If any of them receive over 30% of the vote, it will be considered a landslide victory. Democrat Jon Hulburd awaits the winner of what is expected to be a brutal primary campaign.
- Republican, CD5, U.S. Congress - A mere six Rs have filed sigs in this race to face Democratic incumbent Harry Mitchell in November. This one will probably come down to David Schweikert and Susan Bitter Smith, like it did in 2008.
- Republican, CD7, U.S. Congress - Five (huh?) Rs have filed to go up against Democratic incumbent Raul Grijalva. I'm not sure why. I'm sure I don't care.
- Republican, CD8, U.S. Congress - Five Republicans have filed to challenge Democratic Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords. The highest profile R candidate here is former state senator Jonathan Paton, a supporter of SB1070 and the payday loan industry.
- Libertarian, Governor - Everyone has been aware of the primary on the R side of the ballot (six filed sigs, with unelected incumbent Jan Brewer as the current favorite), but FOUR Libertarians have filed. ????
- There are primaries on one or both sides of the ballot for most of the statewide offices. Nothing unexpected though, so I'll cover those in a later post.
- The same with state lege, though I will mention a few of the more interesting ones here -
- Republican, LD5, State Senate - Sen. Sylvia Allen and Rep. Bill Konopnicki are going at it here. Allen is a darling of the flat Earth/Tea Party contingent; Konopnicki would be considered a right wing whackaloon almost anywhere else, but since he actually proposes a few decent, "good government" pieces of legislation each session in the House, he is considered a RINO (Republican in name only). No idea who will win this one.
- Democratic, LD13, State Senate - Former state representative Steve Gallardo is challenging incumbent Martha Garcia. Don't know the district or either candidate personally so I don't have a clue about this one.
- Republican, LD30, State Senate - Appointed incumbent Frank Antenori and former legislator Marian McClure face off here in what could challenge LD5 for primary of the year (legislative edition). Antenori is a part of the southern AZ contingent of hardcore nativists/Tea Party types in the lege and has a tendency to spout off threateningly to the Board of Supes, media, other legislators, or anyone who crosses him. McClure is overwhelmingly conservative, but civil and thoughtful.
She could be electoral roadkill this year.
- In Maricopa County, the biggest race will be the R race to serve out the last two years of Andrew Thomas' term as County Attorney. He resigned to pursue the greener pastures of the state Attorney General's race.
Three Republicans have filed - Boyd Dunn, mayor of Chandler, Bill Montgomery, 2006 R nominee for AZAG, and Rick Romley, former CA and current interim CA. I expect it will come down to Romley (anti-Arpaio) and Montgomery (pro-Arpaio) but those two could slice each up enough to give Dunn a shot at this one.
More this weekend when I have time to go into more depth on a couple of the races...