Friday, January 22, 2010

Massachusetts Special Election - Not exactly a rebuke to President Obama

Just a couple of interesting numbers -

Votes for John McCain, November 2008 - 1,108,154

Votes for Scott Brown, January 2010 - 1,168,107


Difference: 59,953


That number indicates that a major factor in Brown's victory was turnout problems for the Dems, driven, IMO, by a poor campaign effort from their candidate and the state party there.

3 comments:

Thane Eichenauer said...

Yeah! That's the ticket.

Or it could be some other reason.

cpmaz said...

Thane,

By no means am I saying that turnout was the only reason that Coakley lost. There were multiple factors behind Brown's victory that combined in a complex equation.

In some ways, turnout was the symptom, not the cause. A stronger D candidate, a better GOTV operation from the MassDems, a less well-run campaign from the R candidate, or a less excited GOP base would have turned the result around.

The bottom line is that dissatisfaction with President Obama or HCR should only have made the race closer, but not pushed Brown over the top. Coakley did that herself with her campaign.

In November, some closer races could hinge on feelings about Obama/HCR. However, in any individual race, especially a stand-alone special election, it always comes down to the candidates.

Like it did in MA on Tuesday.

pterenzio2004 said...

Craig, that's alot of ifs. People keep discounting Brown's win. And living here, I can tell you many votes were to send a message, mostly about the spending and HCR. Maybe not of Obama directly - however, certainly of his and Congress' primary initiative the last year.