Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Not good news for Jan Brewer's nascent campaign

From -
Pew report: Ariz. ranks among worst facing budget woes

Arizona lags only California in the magnitude of its state budget woes, according to a new report released today.

The state's high foreclosure rate, year-over-year drop in tax collections and yawning budget gap make it second-worst in the nation in term of budget problems, the Pew Center for the States concludes in a special report, "Beyond California, States in Fiscal Peril."

More details, and the entire report, can be found on the Pew Center's website here.

Brewer has increased her pace of "unofficial" campaigning, with nine items on this week's public schedule, compared to two items on the schedule from a mere five weeks ago.

However, all the campaigning in the world isn't going to erase the aroma of failed leadership wafting from the ninth floor (and the offices of the House Speaker and the Senate President) and surrounding the Capitol. Even if the rumored latest special session goes off next week (no guarantee that - rumors are that she and the lege leadership can't agree on the scope of the special session, and no one is sure that they will even get a quorum if they do actually call the special session), most efforts seem to be focused on kowtowing to pure ideologues (in AZ and DC) and "kicking the can down the road," not dealing with the state's situation responsibly and professionally.

The scary part is while they (Brewer and the lege leadership) have failed to address the worsening deficit in the current year's budget, next year's deficit is projected to be over $3 billion.

And that is an early projection; revenues are worsening and most of her caucus in the lege is dedicated to further cutting revenues. Plus every bit of this year's deficit that they don't deal with now will just be pushed into next year budget.

In short, she needs a miracle to look good enough to win election as an incumbent, and neither she nor the people around her seem to be the "miracle worker" type, nor do they even seem to be the "buckle down and work their way of the the mess" type.

Brewer will have enough trouble getting through the GOP primary; gaining enough support of independent voters to prevail in the general election will be nearly impossible.

Of course, most GOP governors-wannabe will face the same problems next year; many of the "big names" could take a look at the electoral landscape, and cede next year to the Democrats.

They'll wait for 2014 and hope the lege pulls its collective head out of its collective ass by then.

1 comment:

Eli Blake said...

The last election cycle when Democrats won control of the Arizona legislature?

1962. John F. Kennedy was the President, Marilyn Monroe was in the headlines, the Beatles were just getting started and John Glenn was the first American to orbit the earth, Nikita Khrushchev backed down over the Cuban Missile Crisis and the Yankees won the world series (some things never change.) A baby in Hawaii named Barack Obama turned one year old.

Ever since Barry Goldwater's coattails in Arizona swept Republicans to control of the legislature in 1964, Arizona has had only two kinds of Government: 1. Republican control only (which has been the case during most of the past 45 years) and 2. split control when a Democrat has been in the Governor's office (when there has been a brake, but never a reversal, put on the straight rightward approach to governing.)

Decade after decade of Republican dominance of the legislature has made Arizona what it is today. If you like it then vote for more Republicans. If you don't, then vote for Democrats.