The candidate picture for 2010 is already getting cluttered. A quick glance at the AZ Secretary of State's website shows the following 2010 committees have been formed (some are 'exploratory') -
Christopher Tolino, Republican, State Rep., LD20, filer ID 201000001
Michelle Reagan, Republican, exploratory - no office or district listed, filer ID 201000002
Tom Horne, Republican, exploratory - Attorney General, filer ID 201000003
David Lujan, Democrat, exploratory - Attorney General, filer ID 201000011
Chad Campbell, Democrat, State Rep., LD14, Committee to Re-elect, filer ID 201000015
Bob Burns, Republican, exploratory - no office or district listed, filer ID 201000016
Bill Konopnicki, Republican, exploratory - no office or district listed, filer ID 201000018
Bob Gilby, Democrat, exploratory - State Rep. LD27, filer ID 201000019
Katie Hobbs, Democrat, exploratory - State Rep. LD15, filer ID 201000020
Kyrsten Sinema, Democrat, exploratory - State Senate LD15, filer ID 201000021
Robert Meza, Democrat, exploratory - State Senate LD14, filer ID 201000022
Steve Gallardo, Democrat, exploratory - State Senate LD13, filer ID 201000024 (I'm not sure how his recent resignation his House seat affects this, but since the SOS still lists the committee as active, I'm including it here.)
Andy Tobin, Republican, exploratory - State Rep. LD1, re-election, filer ID 201000025
Pamela Gorman, Republican, State Senate LD6, re-election committee, filer ID 201000027
Jimmie Munoz, Jr., Democrat, State Rep. LD16, filer ID 201000029
Luis Garcia, Democrat, State Rep. LD15, filer ID 201000030
Jason Williams, Democrat, Superintendent of Public Instruction, filer ID 201000032
In addition to all of these committees that were formed after the end of the 2008 election cycle (hence the '2010' filer IDs), there's at least one exploratory committee formed in 2008 that is active for the 2010 cycle -
Jack Harper, Republican, exploratory - no office or district listed (but it's for a run at SOS), filer ID 200810288, cash on hand as of 11/24/2008 - $1835.00.
There's no guarantee that all or even any of these candidates will end up actively seeking office next year. Actually, it's a safe bet that some won't. Of course, it's a safer bet that that most will. :))
Another likely occurence is that as higher offices open up, there will be a 'trickle-up' phenomenon.
For example, if John McCain chooses not to run for re-election to the U.S. Senate in 2010 (FYI - right now, he is saying that he will run for re-election), it is likely that one or two current U.S. Congressmen, Jeff Flake and/or John Shadegg will pursue the seat. Once that happens, many current state legislators will raise their sights. For example2, during the few days last year when Shadegg "retired," current State Senators Pam Gorman and Jim Waring were rumored to be interested in the job.
In addition, three somebodys will be taking runs at Democratic U.S. Representatives Gabrielle Giffords (CD8), Ann Kirkpatrick (CD1), and Harry Mitchell (CD5).
In short, there will be a reshuffling of candidates before the campaign season really starts heating up (next January or so.)
Note: Jason Williams spoke at the LD17 Dems' meeting last night. After his unsuccessful run at State Superintendent in 2006, he has remained heavily (and enthusiastically) involved in education issues, working as the founder and leader of Arizona School Works and working with other groups to ensure the future of education for our state's children. While his 2010 campaign website isn't up yet, it should be ready to go by the end of the month. Folks who are interested in volunteering for or contributing to his campaign can contact him at helpkids[at]williamsforarizona.com.