According to what I heard today, the elections folks counted approximately 35,000 ballots today.
The new numbers, from the AZ Secretary of State's website:
Hayworth(R) 67,830 (+2,708)
Mitchell(D) 73,762 (+2,685)
Severin (L) 4,754 (+ 134)
Assuming the number of ballots counted is accurate, over the course of 35,000 ballots, JD gained on Harry by 23 votes.
That means, assuming that the overall number of ballots to be counted that I've heard about, 250,000, is correct, if the rest of the ballots fall out with the same proportions, JD will cut into Harry's lead by a net total of
164 votes.
Just for ha-has, I ran the numbers for a "worst-case scenario" related to the number of ballots counted.
I assumed that the number I have for the ballots counted today, 35,000, is inaccurate; I assumed that the only ballots counted today were the ones that fed into the totals for the CD5 candidates.
That's 5,527 (with JD netting a gain of 23 votes today).
I further assumed, for the sake of this post, that *all* 258,000 of the outstanding ballots in Maricopa County are for CD5 (they're not, but this is a worst-case scenario).
If the proportions of today's ballots hold true for the rest, JD would gain a net of 1074 votes on Harry's lead.
Harry may not be declaring victory yet, but JD should be updating his resume right about now.
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