Found through Taegan Goddard's Political Wire...
In a bit of a surprise, CQPolitics.com has changed its ratings of the CD1 and CD8 races.
CD1 is now at "Leans Republican" (was "Safe Republican") and CD8 is at "No Clear Favorite" (was "Leans Republican"). They credit Ellen Simon's entry into the CD1 race, and the "deep philosophical rift within the district’s [CD8] Republican Party" for the changes in the ratings.
OK, the change in CD8 wasn't really a surprise, as the Democrats have a strong and active slate of candidates, but while CD1 has some great candidates too, they still have an uphill fight. Steeply uphill.
As near as I can tell, they still have CD5 at "Leans Republican", but I'm not sure. If they do, expect a change to "No Clear Favorite" any day now. Soon to be followed by "Leans Democrat". :))
G'night!
3 comments:
I don't think Simon can defeat Renzi, not this late in the cycle. She has money, but not enough campaign infrastructure.
I'd definitely put Renzi as target numero uno for 2008.
Yeah, Renzi will be tough to oust this time around. The change in ratings just means that the raters think that an upset is possible.
I think that the best chance for the CD1 Dems is if after the primary, all of the candidates rally their campaign infrastructures and contributors behind the primary winner, whoever that might be.
Gotta say, CD1 is the most fractured race I'm following, even worse than CD8. I can't see Mike or Bob supporting Ellen after the primary, or vice-versa (should it happen).
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