The latest generic Dem. vs. Rep Gallup poll

Nothing really too surprising, but it's still heartening...

From Gallup Polls, via the Chicago Tribune's The Swamp:

July 12, 2006
Voter Preferences for Congress Still Favor the Democrats

...The Democrats' lead on this "generic ballot" measure has been remarkably
steady since late February, ranging from 9 to 16 points. Today's 10-point lead
is just slightly narrower than the average of 13 points seen in this period.
Earlier this year, the Democrats had a smaller lead of just six to seven
points.

Based on this paragraph, and looking at the results of the same survey graphed for the last year (approximately), there's nothing shocking or even new here, but the consistency is a great sign.

The part that is very interesting is in these paragraphs -

Democrats and Republicans are about even on this dimension in the latest poll: 97% of Democrats are supporting the Democratic candidate in their district, and 94% of Republicans are supporting the Republican. But the average since late February is 95% for the Democrats and 90% for the Republicans.

The fact that Republicans have been lagging behind the Democrats in support for their own parties' candidates this year is a notable departure from previous elections. According to Gallup's final pre-election polls in the last three national election years, the two parties showed about equal party loyalty, compared with the Democrats' slight advantage on this today.

That bodes well in races like the one in AZ CD5, with Harry Mitchell needing all the Democrat votes and some Republican crossovers. Fortunately, his opponent is the polarizing JD Hayworth, someone who embarrasses even staunch, life-long Republicans. The ones with ethics, anyway.

In 2004, a strong year for Repubs in general and facing Elizabeth Rogers of the ~$5000 campaign budget (and almost zero name recognition at the time), JD lost 2 points against registrations (59% of the vote vs. 61% of registered voters who declared a party preference calling themselves Republicans). This year, the Republican party in general is reeling and he's facing local political icon Harry Mitchell. His response has been to demonize Mexicans and the New York Times. That approach may appeal to the extreme right wing of his own party, but pushes away Independents and moderate Republicans.

Yup, JD's in trouble, and it couldn't happen to a nicer guy.

The information in the Gallup Poll also looks good in CD8, where the race is for an open seat, matching up almost perfectly with the "generic ballot" methodology of the poll.

Just hope the CD8 Dems can rally around the winner of what is shaping up to be a rough primary.

As for the Pederson/Kyl U.S. Senate race, I'm not sure. The Republican incumbent Jon Kyl, while a lousy representative of AZ (imo), is nowhere near as overtly polarizing as Hayworth. In his situation, low name recognition as AZ's junior senator actually works in his favor.

On the other hand, he marches in lockstep with George W. Bush, and has that attempt to fool the Supreme Court to try and spin away from.

It's still an uphill battle for Jim Pederson, but the seat is very definitely in play even now.

Another ethical lapse by Kyl could push enough Independents and moderate Republicans over to Pederson on Election Day to send Jon Kyl to his next job, lobbyist for the pharmaceutical industry.

From GlaxoSmithKline (this looks perfect for him - hope they hold it open until November :) )

Requisition Number: 34565
Job Title:
Manager/Senior Manager, Federal Government Relations
Position:
Full-Time Regular
Open Date:
Friday, June 02, 2006 2:12:20 PM
Functional Area:
Corporate / Public Affairs
Location:
Washington, District of Columbia



Required Degrees:
Bachelors Degree

Experience Required:
7 years
Relocation:
Yes
Basic Qualifications:
Bachelor's Degree required. Minimum 7 years in legislative, lobbying,
government or related field. Requires specialized and in-depth knowledge and
experience in public policy development and in the legislative and regulatory
process. The job also requires specialized knowledge on how the changing
political environment may influence the strategies and outcomes regarding a
particular issue.

Preferred Qualifications:
JD or graduate degree in political science health policy or related field preferred.

Details:
Monitor Congressional and Executive Branch initiatives relevant to GSK and to assist in analyzing the potential impact on GSK and developing and advocating positions on those issues. Work with senior management of the commercial businesses to develop objectives that will add commercial value to those businesses. Interact with all levels of management within the business units (as well as legal, communications, R&D, and policy funtions) to develop government relations objectives and strategies and then to secure the attainment of those objectives through effective advocacy in the US Congress. Also work with numerous outside constituencies...

P.S. - while the rest of the major races in AZ are probably too lopsided for the slip in Republican party loyalty to make a difference, CD1 could get interesting if Rick Renzi makes a misstep. I would love to hear from someone familiar with CD1 to give their take on the poll.


Good night!