Tobin out of CD4 race; Borowsky jumps into CD9

...Not that he was ever *in* the race, but House Speaker Andy Tobin had been the subject of many rumors that he was going to jump into the Republican primary in CD4.  On Monday, he put those rumors to rest, announcing that there is too much left to do to the state at the state level.

More likely, he saw the calendar for collecting nominating signatures getting short (due at the end of the month) and he would be trying to raise money in a field that already has three experienced Republicans running. 

On top of all that, it's simply just easier to get on the ballot as a legislative candidate than as a Congressional candidate (compare the signature requirements for LD1 with the requirements for CD4)

...Rumors have been swirling about the possible Congressional candidacy of Lisa Borowsky, a Republican and a member of the Scottsdale City Council.  She has put those particular rumors to rest by announcing that she will be running in the new CD9.

Not a total surprise.  Her council seat is up for reelection this year and she hasn't formed a reelection committee yet, and the timing on that is the same as the timing on a run for Congress.

However, unlike the Rs in CD4, the Rs in CD9 aren't as experienced, half never having held elected office and the other half never having held office higher than city/town council.  And none of them seem to be pulling away in the race.

Combine that with the fact that she would need more signatures to get on Scottsdale's ballot (1000) than to get on the CD9 primary ballot (616)

Taking a shot at the rare truly open Congressional seat isn't a difficult decision under the circumstances.


...There may be more people to jump into Congressional races, but at this point, look for those people to be well-funded enough to hire signature gatherers at premium, "last minute" rates, or to be simply crazy.

In other words, I believe the fields in the various CDs are pretty much set; it's just a matter of seeing which candidates actually qualify for the ballot.

The maps are in, and other 2012 updates

Just a few quick updates...

The Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission (AIRC) has submitted its "tentative final" maps for Congressional and legislative districts to its analysts.  Assuming that the analysts don't find any major issues with the maps (and they probably won't), the maps will then be submitted to the US Department of Justice for preclearance under the Voting Rights Act.  If DOJ doesn't find any major issues (the likelihood of that is anybody's guess), those maps will form the basis of elections for the next decade.

Some national media outlets (The Hill and Politico) are calling the maps a victory for Democrats, but they aren't, really.  They guarantee Republican control of the legislature for another 10 years, and all but guarantee a Republican-majority Congressional delegation for the same period.  What they do however, is make it more difficult for the Rs to maintain their outsized domination of the legislature.

As such, the Rs are crying about the maps, but the tears may be mostly of the "crocodile" variety...

Steve at Arizona Eagletarian has more complete coverage of the AIRC here.


...Neil Giuliano, former mayor of Tempe, a rumored candidate for the Democratic nomination in the new 9th Congressional district, has announced that he will not be pursuing that job (subscription required).  State Sen. David Schapira is currently exploring a run at the seat, and State Sen. Kyrsten Sinema and Arizona Democratic Party chair Andrei Cherny are rumored to be eyeing the same race.


...Lastly, the list of candidates on the ballot for February's Republican presidential preference primary is now five strong - Ron Paul, Mitt Romney...and Wayne Arnett, Raymond Perkins, and Al "Dick" Perry.

No, I don't know those last three either.  Look for the final ballot to include 20 - 25 names, with seven or eight that people actually know.

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